Kyler Gordon's three sacks debunk the Falcons +2.5 case

The premise was two protected quarterbacks and two pass rushes that couldn't get there. Nine sacks later, that is in the bin. Kyler Gordon had three in his season debut, Za'Darius Smith played and got one of Atlanta's four, and Caleb Williams went 30 of 36 for 305 in his first game back. Zachariah Branch muffed a punt and a kickoff and Chicago led 28-7 after three. Bears 31, Falcons 23 only because Chicago emptied the defense. Five and a half short of plus 2.5.

Both of these lines protect and both of these pass rushes are a mess, which usually means the better passing offense wins. Chicago's front loses Montez Sweat to a two-game PED suspension and has Dayo Odeyingbo on the report with a quad; Atlanta's loses Za'Darius Smith to concussion protocol, so Caleb Williams and Michael Penix should both get time behind units rated fourth and fifth in pass blocking. Williams is back from a grade two hamstring, which costs Chicago some of the scrambling that makes the offense go, but Chicago still throws it better, at -0.03 per pass against Atlanta's -0.15. Penix is expected to start on sore ribs, and that's the sort of thing that shows up on throws outside the numbers in the fourth quarter. We make it Falcons +1; the market says +2.5 after trading as high as Bears -3.5 earlier in the week and walking down on the Penix and Sweat news. A point and a half of value, but 2.5 is the wrong side of three and we aren't clearing it by two, so this is a lean.