NFL Week 6 picks against the spread, 2026

Seattle's defense is the reason this line exists. The Seahawks are second in the league in defensive EPA per play at -0.18 and second against the pass at -0.17, and they walk into a Denver offense sitting 24th at -0.11 with Bo Nix at -0.08 per pass. That's the one lopsided unit battle on the field. Denver's way back in is the other direction: Talanoa Hufanga is out two to three weeks with an ankle and Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss are both on the report, and ordinarily a secondary that thin is a live problem, except Seattle's offense is 25th by EPA and Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been limited with his own ankle, so the cluster doesn't line up against a strength. We make it Broncos +1.5; the market says +2.5. A one-point disagreement on a short week, on the wrong side of a key number, is a lean and nothing more.

Wembley is a neutral field, so nobody gets a home edge and our number reflects that. Jacksonville's defense is third in EPA per play at -0.13 and third against the run at -0.22, which is the wrong wall for a Houston offense rated 27th in run blocking and running at -0.12 per carry even before David Montgomery's groin keeps him out. Trevor Lawrence has been the better quarterback by a wide margin, +0.23 EPA per pass against C.J. Stroud's +0.06, and Houston's defense has an odd profile: third-best in the league at stopping plays on a per-snap basis but only 16th in EPA because it surrenders the big one, which is the single thing Jacksonville does best. Marvin Harrison Jr. arrives from Arizona and is expected to debut, but a receiver learning a new offense on a London week isn't worth a point of our number. We make it Jaguars -4; the market says -2.5. Houston's 1-4 record overstates how badly they've played, which is why this is a play and not a hammer.

New England is laying a touchdown and a half with both starting corners and its left tackle on the injury report. Christian Gonzalez is dealing with a shoulder and Carlton Davis III with a neck, Will Campbell has a knee, and TreVeyon Henderson is out multiple weeks with a high ankle sprain, which takes away the run game Drake Maye has been leaning on along with the protection. On the other side the Jets own the best unit in this game: a defense sixth in EPA per play at -0.10 with the coverage profile that travels week to week better than pass-rush numbers do. New York's problem is scoring, 19th by EPA with Breece Hall out and Adonai Mitchell's finger still an issue, so we're not arguing they win, we're arguing a one-score game is the likelier shape than a three-score one. A.J. Brown is back at practice off IR and Mike Vrabel wouldn't guarantee him, and a receiver in his first game back doesn't close three points anyway. We make it Patriots -4.5; the market says -7.5. For the record, we backed the Raiders at New England last week and got buried 45-17, which is not a reason to fade the Patriots and forms no part of this.

Philadelphia's offense is 30th in EPA per play at -0.19 and last in success rate at 37.0%, and the cavalry isn't coming. Saquon Barkley wasn't seen in the open portion of Wednesday's practice and DeVonta Smith worked off to the side, Will Shipley and Tank Bigsby are both down, and Hollywood Brown is on the report with an ankle, which leaves Jalen Hurts running an offense with no back and no outside threat behind a line rated 24th. Carolina's counter is the best matchup on the field: Bryce Young is at +0.17 EPA per pass and Philadelphia's coverage has been the soft spot, 22nd in defensive EPA at +0.06 allowed per pass. We had the Eagles plus 7.5 in London last week and they covered; a short home favorite is a different number, not a different read. The hesitation is Carolina's sample, four games with a bye in the middle, and their own line is rated 22nd with Damien Lewis and Monroe Freeling banged up, so we've regressed them harder than the raw efficiency wants. We make it Panthers -1.5; the market says +1.5, which means taking points with the better offense.

New Orleans has the worst defense in football by the measure that decides drives: opponents succeed on 50.3% of their plays against the Saints, the highest rate in the league, and they have allowed 744 rushing yards, also the most. That's the dominant unit on this field and it is facing a Giants offense that doesn't have to be good to take advantage, only patient. We are not going to pretend the Giants get home with the rush, because Brian Burns tore his ACL in Week 3 and New York's pass rush has been close to nonexistent since, which is a correction to how we would have written this game a month ago. Jameis Winston has started the last three games with Jaxson Dart out for the regular season, so he is priced in rather than news, and the three Giants who left the Washington tie, Jermaine Eluemunor, Colton Hood and Tyler Nubin, are day to day. The honest caution is that the Saints' efficiency numbers aren't schedule-adjusted and they already went into Baltimore and won, so the real gap is probably smaller than the raw figures say, which is why we shaded our number toward the market rather than away from it. We make it Giants -4; the market says -1.5.

This whole number is one ankle. With Lamar Jackson playing we make Baltimore about seven and a half here; with Tyler Huntley it's closer to three and a half, and all anybody has is ESPN's report of a realistic chance to return after Jackson missed the start of Wednesday's practice. The football underneath tilts Baltimore either way: the Ravens lead the league in offensive success rate at 52.3% while Cleveland is last at 37.1%, and Deshaun Watson has been at -0.07 per pass. Cleveland's path is its pass rush against a reshuffled Baltimore front, with Cam Jurgens in a non-contact jersey coming out of concussion protocol and Andrew Vorhees on the report, but that rush is thinner than it used to be: Myles Garrett went to the Rams in June, and Jared Verse, the edge Cleveland got back for him, hasn't recorded a sack yet. In a game with a total in the low forties a short field still keeps the Browns live, but it's a path, not a plan. We make it Ravens -6.5; the market says -5.5, up from -3.5 on Monday, which tells you the market is pricing Jackson in a little at a time rather than all at once. Weight it however you weight the ankle, and expect Friday's designation to move this another two points in one direction or the other.

Both of these lines protect and both of these pass rushes are a mess, which usually means the better passing offense wins. Chicago's front loses Montez Sweat to a two-game PED suspension and has Dayo Odeyingbo on the report with a quad; Atlanta's loses Za'Darius Smith to concussion protocol, so Caleb Williams and Michael Penix should both get time behind units rated fourth and fifth in pass blocking. Williams is back from a grade two hamstring, which costs Chicago some of the scrambling that makes the offense go, but Chicago still throws it better, at -0.03 per pass against Atlanta's -0.15. Penix is expected to start on sore ribs, and that's the sort of thing that shows up on throws outside the numbers in the fourth quarter. We make it Falcons +1; the market says +2.5 after trading as high as Bears -3.5 earlier in the week and walking down on the Penix and Sweat news. A point and a half of value, but 2.5 is the wrong side of three and we aren't clearing it by two, so this is a lean.

Tampa Bay is down to Jalon Daniels with Baker Mayfield's dislocated thumb still keeping him from throwing as of Wednesday, and that quarterback gap is the whole reason Pittsburgh is favored on the road. It is not much of a reason by itself, because the Buccaneers' defense is fourth in the league in EPA per play at -0.11 and holds at -0.21 against the run, and it is facing a Pittsburgh offense that's 23rd at -0.10 with a receiving room down to scraps: Michael Pittman out multiple weeks with a foot, Roman Wilson out with a finger, Ben Skowronek out with a calf. Tampa's line is rated ninth in pass protection, which is the kindest thing you can hand a backup quarterback, and T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith didn't get home at all last week. We make it Steelers -3; the market says -2.5. Half a point, on a road favorite without the two-point cushion we want for laying points away from home, and we had Tampa plus the points a week ago, so call it what it is: a lean on the quarterback gap and nothing more.

The worst unit on this field is Tennessee's offensive line, rated 31st overall and second-worst in pass protection, and Cam Ward has been eating the consequences at -0.27 EPA per pass. So why the dog? Because Indianapolis can't throw either, at -0.21 per pass with Daniel Jones, and the Colts' receiving room is thin with Darius Slayton on the knee report, Ashton Dulin on the hamstring report and Alec Pierce on IR. What Indianapolis does have is the one thing that works in this matchup, a run game at +0.09 EPA per carry, but it meets a Tennessee front that's actually fine against the run at -0.12, which argues for a grinding game rather than a comfortable one. Tennessee's secondary is beaten up with Amani Hooker in concussion protocol and Kevin Winston Jr. on a quad, and that's the hole Indianapolis would have to throw into, which they haven't shown they can do to anybody. We make it Colts -5.5; the market says -7. Two bad offenses and a total in the mid forties is not the shape of a two-score game.

Every unit battle here goes one way. Arizona's defense is 29th in EPA per play and second-worst against the pass at +0.33 allowed, their line is rated 30th with the worst blocking score in the league, and they just shipped Marvin Harrison Jr. to Houston, which removes the one player who scared anybody off a Jacoby Brissett offense. Matthew Stafford against that coverage, behind a line rated tenth, is the cleanest spot on the board, and it's a division game so we only credited a point of home field. The trouble is there's nothing to collect: we make it Rams -12.5 and the market says -12.5. Laying thirteen into a backdoor with a 51.5 total is how a good read turns into a bad ticket, and our own grading says the zero-edge picks we talked ourselves into last week should have been passes. We took Arizona plus the points last week and got run over by Detroit, which has nothing to do with this, and this one is on the card because we pick every game, not because we found something.

The most lopsided pairing on the slate is the Chargers' pass protection against Kansas City's rush. Los Angeles is rated 29th on the line and worst in the league in pass blocking, Joe Alt is on the report with a neck, and Justin Herbert has nobody to throw to: Ladd McConkey's foot, Quentin Johnston's chest, Tre' Harris's hamstring and Brenen Thompson's quad have that room down to nothing with David Njoku on IR. That's how a team ends up 32nd in offensive EPA per play at -0.22 and 0-5. The reason this number isn't bigger is that the Chargers' defense is genuinely good, seventh in EPA per play at -0.10 and -0.16 against the run, and even with Derwin James on the hamstring report it keeps games in the forties. Kansas City has thin spots of its own with Rashee Rice's hamstring and Tyquan Thornton gone for months, but Patrick Mahomes at +0.16 per pass against an offense that can't stay on the field is the shape of this game. We make it Chiefs -10.5; the market says -8.5. We had the Chargers plus the points at home last week and they lost outright, and the reason we're on the other side now is the receiver room and Alt's neck, not the result.

Green Bay's week got worse in three directions. Javon Hargrave is out for the season with a torn Achilles, Josh Jacobs is on the commissioner exempt list and isn't expected to play, Micah Parsons remains on PUP and has been ruled out, and Aaron Banks and Jacob Monk are both on the report for a line already rated worst in the league. That pulls the teeth out of a defense sitting eighth in EPA per play and leaves Jordan Love in front of a run game that's last in the NFL at -0.33 per carry. Dallas brings the seventh-best offense by EPA and Dak Prescott at +0.16 per pass into a Green Bay secondary with Keisean Nixon on the report with a groin. The catch, and it's a big one, is that Dallas has the worst defense in football, 32nd in EPA per play, worst against the pass at +0.36 allowed and giving up the most rushing yards in the league, so Love doesn't need much; CeeDee Lamb's quad and two Dallas corners on the report cut the same way. We make it Packers -1; the market says -1.5. We took the Packers last week and they won by 24, so understand exactly what this is: a half-point lean on Green Bay's attrition, against our own position from seven days ago.

San Francisco throws it better than anybody, +0.36 EPA per pass, and Washington's coverage is precisely where you'd want to aim: 23rd in defensive EPA, +0.05 allowed per pass, and 14 passing touchdowns surrendered, tied for the most in the league. That matchup holds even with the 49ers' receiver room in pieces, because Deebo Samuel is out with a hamstring, Demarcus Robinson is likely out, and Ricky Pearsall and De'Zhaun Stribling are on IR, which funnels everything through George Kittle behind a line rated third in football that keeps Brock Purdy clean. Jayden Daniels is back for Washington and that's a genuine upgrade on Marcus Mariota's MCL, but Washington's receivers are thin too, with Stefon Diggs on the hamstring report, Terry McLaurin a game-time call last week and Jaylin Lane gone for the year. Daniels will get his on the ground, because Washington scrambles more than any team in the league and he ran for 103 himself two weeks ago, so this isn't a shutout script and the under isn't the read. Nick Bosa's calf is the one thing that could change the pass-rush half of it. We make it 49ers -9.5; the market says -7.5, and here's the unusual part: both of our inputs put San Francisco past eight, so the market is below our floor rather than inside our range.