Dak Prescott's 54 throws for 258 yards bury Cowboys +1.5 at Lambeau

The attrition case was accurate and useless. Green Bay's run game was exactly the corpse we described, Pierre Strong carrying 11 times for 28 yards, and the Packers won anyway because Dak Prescott went 34 of 54 for 258, a yawning 4.8 an attempt, with second-quarter interceptions by Evan Williams and rookie Brandon Cisse on back-to-back drives. CeeDee Lamb played and got 70 yards on 18 targets. Green Bay led 17-0 at the half and Dallas scored its touchdown with 44 seconds left. Packers 23, Cowboys 13, eight and a half past plus 1.5.

Green Bay's week got worse in three directions. Javon Hargrave is out for the season with a torn Achilles, Josh Jacobs is on the commissioner exempt list and isn't expected to play, Micah Parsons remains on PUP and has been ruled out, and Aaron Banks and Jacob Monk are both on the report for a line already rated worst in the league. That pulls the teeth out of a defense sitting eighth in EPA per play and leaves Jordan Love in front of a run game that's last in the NFL at -0.33 per carry. Dallas brings the seventh-best offense by EPA and Dak Prescott at +0.16 per pass into a Green Bay secondary with Keisean Nixon on the report with a groin. The catch, and it's a big one, is that Dallas has the worst defense in football, 32nd in EPA per play, worst against the pass at +0.36 allowed and giving up the most rushing yards in the league, so Love doesn't need much; CeeDee Lamb's quad and two Dallas corners on the report cut the same way. We make it Packers -1; the market says -1.5. We took the Packers last week and they won by 24, so understand exactly what this is: a half-point lean on Green Bay's attrition, against our own position from seven days ago.