Fairbairn's walk-off 49-yarder sinks the Jaguars -2.5 at Wembley

We bought Jacksonville's run defense and Houston ran for 114 yards on 4.6 a carry, with practice squad call-up Jawhar Jordan going 25 yards for a score. Stroud was the better quarterback too, 24 of 34 for 312 and three scores against Lawrence's 24 of 41. Cam Little's 60-yarder tied it at 31, then Ka'imi Fairbairn walked it off from 49. Texans 34, Jaguars 31, six points the wrong side of minus 2.5. The whole thesis was the wall that wasn't there.

Wembley is a neutral field, so nobody gets a home edge and our number reflects that. Jacksonville's defense is third in EPA per play at -0.13 and third against the run at -0.22, which is the wrong wall for a Houston offense rated 27th in run blocking and running at -0.12 per carry even before David Montgomery's groin keeps him out. Trevor Lawrence has been the better quarterback by a wide margin, +0.23 EPA per pass against C.J. Stroud's +0.06, and Houston's defense has an odd profile: third-best in the league at stopping plays on a per-snap basis but only 16th in EPA because it surrenders the big one, which is the single thing Jacksonville does best. Marvin Harrison Jr. arrives from Arizona and is expected to debut, but a receiver learning a new offense on a London week isn't worth a point of our number. We make it Jaguars -4; the market says -2.5. Houston's 1-4 record overstates how badly they've played, which is why this is a play and not a hammer.