Borregales' missed kick and a late Sanders field goal cash Jets +7.5

Half a point, and we'll take it with no dignity at all. New England led 17-3 at the half and the case we made was wrong at the roots: Christian Gonzalez, Will Campbell and TreVeyon Henderson all played, and the Jets defense never sacked Geno Smith once. Andy Borregales missed an extra point, Jason Sanders kicked a 36-yarder with 36 seconds left, and Patriots 26, Jets 19 clears plus 7.5 by a hair. Right side, wrong reason, and a backdoor to boot.

New England is laying a touchdown and a half with both starting corners and its left tackle on the injury report. Christian Gonzalez is dealing with a shoulder and Carlton Davis III with a neck, Will Campbell has a knee, and TreVeyon Henderson is out multiple weeks with a high ankle sprain, which takes away the run game Drake Maye has been leaning on along with the protection. On the other side the Jets own the best unit in this game: a defense sixth in EPA per play at -0.10 with the coverage profile that travels week to week better than pass-rush numbers do. New York's problem is scoring, 19th by EPA with Breece Hall out and Adonai Mitchell's finger still an issue, so we're not arguing they win, we're arguing a one-score game is the likelier shape than a three-score one. A.J. Brown is back at practice off IR and Mike Vrabel wouldn't guarantee him, and a receiver in his first game back doesn't close three points anyway. We make it Patriots -4.5; the market says -7.5. For the record, we backed the Raiders at New England last week and got buried 45-17, which is not a reason to fade the Patriots and forms no part of this.