Rodgers' overtime touchdown to Bernard rescues Steelers -2.5

Dead and buried at 16-3 entering the fourth, and this ticket still got there. Aaron Rodgers went 33 of 49 for 253 and Pittsburgh scored on five straight possessions, Jamel Dean returned a Jalon Daniels interception 40 yards to set up the go-ahead kick, and after Chase McLaughlin forced overtime from 53 Rodgers drove 70 yards to Germie Bernard. Jalen Ramsey ended it with a fourth-down sack. Steelers 26, Buccaneers 19 clears minus 2.5 by four and a half. The quarterback gap paid, in the last place we'd have looked for it.

Tampa Bay is down to Jalon Daniels with Baker Mayfield's dislocated thumb still keeping him from throwing as of Wednesday, and that quarterback gap is the whole reason Pittsburgh is favored on the road. It is not much of a reason by itself, because the Buccaneers' defense is fourth in the league in EPA per play at -0.11 and holds at -0.21 against the run, and it is facing a Pittsburgh offense that's 23rd at -0.10 with a receiving room down to scraps: Michael Pittman out multiple weeks with a foot, Roman Wilson out with a finger, Ben Skowronek out with a calf. Tampa's line is rated ninth in pass protection, which is the kindest thing you can hand a backup quarterback, and T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith didn't get home at all last week. We make it Steelers -3; the market says -2.5. Half a point, on a road favorite without the two-point cushion we want for laying points away from home, and we had Tampa plus the points a week ago, so call it what it is: a lean on the quarterback gap and nothing more.