Lutz's 53-yarder in overtime cashes Broncos +2.5 despite 168 total yards

Denver 17, Seattle 14 in overtime, and the Broncos +2.5 ticket clears the number by five and a half. Credit where it goes: not to Denver's offense, which put up 168 total yards and 107 passing from Bo Nix. Sam Darnold threw for 278 and found Jaxon Smith-Njigba 12 times for 134, then threw two picks, the last to Ja'Quan McMillian at the Seattle 43. Wil Lutz won it from 53. Right side, wrong reason. Jason Myers's 47-yarder off the upright didn't hurt either.

Seattle's defense is the reason this line exists. The Seahawks are second in the league in defensive EPA per play at -0.18 and second against the pass at -0.17, and they walk into a Denver offense sitting 24th at -0.11 with Bo Nix at -0.08 per pass. That's the one lopsided unit battle on the field. Denver's way back in is the other direction: Talanoa Hufanga is out two to three weeks with an ankle and Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss are both on the report, and ordinarily a secondary that thin is a live problem, except Seattle's offense is 25th by EPA and Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been limited with his own ankle, so the cluster doesn't line up against a strength. We make it Broncos +1.5; the market says +2.5. A one-point disagreement on a short week, on the wrong side of a key number, is a lean and nothing more.