Oladejo's blocked-punt touchdown wins it outright for Titans +7

We said two bad offenses and a mid-forties total is not the shape of a two-score game, and the dog won outright. Tennessee was outgained 399 to 186 and held the ball for 21 minutes, then took the lead for the first time all day when Julius Chestnut blocked a punt and Oluwafemi Oladejo ran it in. Six sacks of Daniel Jones, three takeaways, four Joey Slye field goals. Titans 26, Colts 20, a 13-point cover. Amani Hooker, who we had in concussion protocol, intercepted Jones at the six.

The worst unit on this field is Tennessee's offensive line, rated 31st overall and second-worst in pass protection, and Cam Ward has been eating the consequences at -0.27 EPA per pass. So why the dog? Because Indianapolis can't throw either, at -0.21 per pass with Daniel Jones, and the Colts' receiving room is thin with Darius Slayton on the knee report, Ashton Dulin on the hamstring report and Alec Pierce on IR. What Indianapolis does have is the one thing that works in this matchup, a run game at +0.09 EPA per carry, but it meets a Tennessee front that's actually fine against the run at -0.12, which argues for a grinding game rather than a comfortable one. Tennessee's secondary is beaten up with Amani Hooker in concussion protocol and Kevin Winston Jr. on a quad, and that's the hole Indianapolis would have to throw into, which they haven't shown they can do to anybody. We make it Colts -5.5; the market says -7. Two bad offenses and a total in the mid forties is not the shape of a two-score game.