Daniels' 300 yards erase a 20-3 lead and bury the 49ers -7.5 ticket

San Francisco led 20-3 at halftime and 23-3 in the third, and this still missed by a point and a half. The case was Purdy picking apart the 23rd-ranked pass defense, and he did it, 21 of 29 for 264 yards. What we never priced was Jayden Daniels going 29 of 40 for 300 yards and two scores while the 49ers closed on three straight three-and-outs. Mike Evans limping off with an Achilles did not help, but a 17-point lead you cannot hold is on the handicap, not the luck.

San Francisco throws it better than anybody, +0.36 EPA per pass, and Washington's coverage is precisely where you'd want to aim: 23rd in defensive EPA, +0.05 allowed per pass, and 14 passing touchdowns surrendered, tied for the most in the league. That matchup holds even with the 49ers' receiver room in pieces, because Deebo Samuel is out with a hamstring, Demarcus Robinson is likely out, and Ricky Pearsall and De'Zhaun Stribling are on IR, which funnels everything through George Kittle behind a line rated third in football that keeps Brock Purdy clean. Jayden Daniels is back for Washington and that's a genuine upgrade on Marcus Mariota's MCL, but Washington's receivers are thin too, with Stefon Diggs on the hamstring report, Terry McLaurin a game-time call last week and Jaylin Lane gone for the year. Daniels will get his on the ground, because Washington scrambles more than any team in the league and he ran for 103 himself two weeks ago, so this isn't a shutout script and the under isn't the read. Nick Bosa's calf is the one thing that could change the pass-rush half of it. We make it 49ers -9.5; the market says -7.5, and here's the unusual part: both of our inputs put San Francisco past eight, so the market is below our floor rather than inside our range.