Javonte Williams' career-high 155 yards cashes Cowboys -4.5 by 12.5 points

Dallas 38, Philadelphia 21. We laid 4.5 and won by 17, a 12.5-point cover, and Philadelphia actually led 21-20 in the third before it broke open. The admission: our case was Tanner McKee getting buried behind the league's worst protection, and he went 23 of 35 for 211 with a touchdown. What won it was a run game we never mentioned. Dallas piled up 204 rushing yards, Javonte Williams went for a career-high 155 on 25 carries, and Philadelphia never sacked Dak Prescott. Right side, wrong reason.

Philadelphia is 31st in offensive EPA per play and 28th in scoring at 17.7 a game, and that was mostly with Jalen Hurts, who is on injured reserve with a deep vein thrombosis and bilateral pulmonary emboli and is reported by two national outlets to be out for the season. Tanner McKee makes the third start of his career behind a line missing three opening-day starters after Lane Johnson retired on October 6 and Cam Jurgens was traded to Baltimore the next day, and that unit ranks 32nd in the NFL in pressure rate and 32nd in unblocked pressure rate. Carolina pressured McKee on 41.7% of his attempts and he completed 47% at 4.9 yards an attempt for a negative 0.40 EPA, and because he is a timing thrower rather than an escape artist, a leaky line costs him more than it cost Hurts. Dallas just produced its first three-sack game of the season and 20 pressures of Jordan Love, while Philadelphia's own edge rush is thin with Jalyx Hunt, the team leader at 16 pressures, week to week, Nolan Smith in the concussion protocol and Jordan Davis, who left the Carolina game on an ankle and whom ESPN still lists as healthy, hoping to practice this week. Against us: Dallas allows a league-worst 149.8 rushing yards a game and a league-worst 52.6% on third down, and Philadelphia's run defense is far better than its raw number, allowing a 34.2% success rate on early-down runs with the highest light-box rate in the league at 65.5%. This is a lean and not a play for one reason: Saquon Barkley's hamstring is a Saturday call on a Monday game, he and Dameon Pierce are the only active backs on the roster, and if Barkley plays our number comes down and the edge goes with it. We make it Cowboys -5.5; the market says -4.5, which is already 7.5 points from an Eagles -3 lookahead.