Allgeier's 63-yard run and Minshew's three scores bury Cowboys -6.5 in OT

Our number one play, and everything underneath it was wrong. We said Arizona could not finish drives and had no completion of 40 yards all season. Gardner Minshew came off the bench and threw three touchdowns, Tyler Allgeier ran 63 yards for one score and caught another, and the Cardinals turned a 30-24 deficit with 1:09 left into a 33-30 overtime win. Chad Ryland missed the extra point that would have won it in regulation, then kicked the 42-yarder that did. Nine and a half points the wrong way.

Arizona can't pressure a quarterback and can't finish a drive, and Dallas is built to punish precisely that. The Cardinals generate pressure on 24.7% of dropbacks, dead last in the league, against a Dallas line that has allowed one sack in three games, the best protection stretch in football, so Dak Prescott should play this one clean. Then there's the coverage: Arizona plays man on 9.1% of snaps and closes the middle of the field on only 21.9%, the most open middle in the league, and with Max Melton and Andrew Wingard both questionable on knees, Kei'Trel Clark and Dadrion Taylor-Demerson are the likely replacements behind a unit that's already surrendered 17 passing touchdowns and a 112.5 passer rating. CeeDee Lamb has 81 targets and George Pickens 58, and a defense that doesn't play man can't bracket either. On the ground Dallas ran for 204 yards in Philadelphia and Javonte Williams went for 155 the week before, into an Arizona front that's given up 5.3 a carry over three games with Walter Nolen questionable. We make it Cowboys -9; the market says -6.5 to -7. Arizona's counter is genuine and worth stating: Trey McBride leads the entire NFL in receptions and Dallas is down Marist Liufau with Dee Winters questionable at linebacker, and the Cowboys' own defense is 30th in EPA per play with three takeaways all season. It isn't enough, because the Cardinals have one touchdown in their last 10 red-zone trips, no rushing touchdown in three games and not one completion of 40 yards all year. We took Arizona last week and we're laying nine against them now because the number moved four points in our direction.