Jackson's thumb goes on snap one and Ravens +3.5 never had a chance

We wrote that this pick lived or died on Lamar Jackson's designation, got him cleared, and watched him hurt his thumb on Baltimore's first offensive snap. Tyler Huntley followed him out in the second quarter with a toe injury, which left undrafted rookie Joe Fagnano at 10 of 21 for 91 yards. Josh Allen went 21 of 34 for 289 yards and two scores. Buffalo 36, Baltimore 10, a 22.5-point miss on the number. Conditioning a pick on one man's health is how you lose by 26.

Lamar Jackson practiced Wednesday for the first time since a high ankle sprain cost him three games, and this pick lives or dies on Friday's designation. If he plays, Baltimore brings the league's most efficient quarterback by EPA per dropback at 0.38 into the worst pass defense in football: Buffalo allows 298.7 passing yards a game, a 102.5 passer rating and 15 touchdowns against three interceptions, and C.J. Gardner-Johnson is suspended for exactly this game. Zay Flowers has 608 of Baltimore's 1,694 passing yards and he'll see zone with a backup safety behind it, because Buffalo plays man on 16.8% of snaps and there's no evidence it travels Christian Benford. Baltimore's interior line is wrecked, with Ethan Pocic, Danny Pinter and Jovaughn Gwyn on injured reserve and Vega Ioane doubtful, and that's produced a 10.2% sack rate over three games, but Buffalo has two sacks in its last three, the lowest three-game rate in the league, and Ed Oliver has played three games all year. We make it Bills -2.5; the market says -3 to -3.5. Buffalo's answer is the ground game, where James Cook and Josh Allen have 14 rushing touchdowns between them and 33.5% of Bills carries produce a first down, the highest rate in football, against a Baltimore front that's eighth in run-stop win rate but has already allowed eight rushing scores. Take the Ravens only if Jackson is cleared: with Tyler Huntley we make this Bills -4.5 and the pick is dead, which is why it stays a lean.