Swift's three touchdown runs and a 34-17 rout cash Bears +3.5 by 20.5

We took the three and a half on Chicago's pass rush, and the pass rush delivered: three sacks of Sam Darnold, 17 of 34 for 188 yards, and a fourth-quarter interception that set up D'Andre Swift's third touchdown run. Bears 34, Seahawks 17, a cover by 20.5. One honest note: Jeffery Simmons got one of those sacks in his Bears debut, and he wasn't on the board when we posted this. Seattle's front did erase Chicago's run game as promised, holding Swift to 69 yards on 27 carries.

Seattle's record understates them and we'll say it up front: a plus-43 point differential, second in defensive EPA, 2-3 in one-score games, and Sam Darnold's league-leading eight interceptions are most of the reason this is 4-3 rather than better. We make it Seahawks -2; the market says -3 to -3.5. Seattle's defense generates pressure on 45.2% of dropbacks, second in the league, while blitzing on only 20.9%, which ranks 31st, and it stops the run from the lightest front in football, a league-low 15.9% heavy-box rate with 3.5 yards a carry allowed and no 100-yard rusher all season. That is precisely the defense built to erase Chicago's model, which is league-high run volume at 246 attempts and 154.3 yards a game plus clock control, and Kyle Monangai, the efficient back at 5.4 a carry, is week-to-week. Chicago's path is the other line: the Bears carry the highest defensive sack rate on the slate at 8.9% with Montez Sweat back from suspension aligning over a left tackle spot where Charles Cross is doubtful with a high ankle sprain and Quenton Nelson's availability after Tuesday's trade hasn't been settled, and Darnold is second-worst in the league in EPA per dropback when pressured at minus 0.63. The problem is Chicago's own secondary, last in the league in yards per attempt allowed at 8.7 with Malik Muhammad questionable, which is the wrong weakness to carry against Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who leads all receivers in catches, yards and touchdowns while absorbing 34.5% of Seattle's targets. We're taking the three and a half because Chicago's defense outranks Seattle's offense in all six EPA and success-rate categories, not because we think the Bears are the better team.