Herbert's two picks and Corum's 23-yard run cash Rams -6.5 by 8.5

This is what we said would happen. Justin Herbert's turnover-worthy rate was the whole case, and he threw two interceptions, to Quentin Lake and Trent McDuffie, that turned directly into 10 Los Angeles points. Blake Corum opened the second half with a 23-yard touchdown run, Puka Nacua took an 18-yard screen in for the clincher, and Herbert finished without a touchdown pass. Twenty-four to nine, 8.5 past the number, and the only one of our graded ranked plays to cash. The coverage read was the right lever.

The Chargers have started four rookies on the offensive line and are without four of five projected starters, with Rashawn Slater, Tyler Biadasz, Trey Pipkins and Trevor Penning all on injured reserve. Justin Herbert is the second-most pressured quarterback in football at 45.8% of dropbacks, carries a 10.4% sack rate, and has 13 turnover-worthy plays for the highest rate in the league with nine of them coming in fourth quarters. We make it Rams -9; the market says -6.5. The honest counter belongs up front: this is the least threatening pass rush Herbert will face all season, because Los Angeles has 10 sacks, a 4% sack rate and not one sack from any defensive lineman all year, with Myles Garrett, Kobie Turner and Poona Ford all on injured reserve, and Joe Alt is expected back at right tackle to replace a rookie who graded 36.2 there. The reason that doesn't rescue the Chargers is coverage, where the Rams allow 167 passing yards a game and 6.0 an attempt and hold opposing number one receivers to the second-lowest fantasy points per target in the league, while Herbert has had zero open receivers on 39 dropbacks with Tre' Harris questionable, Ladd McConkey just back from a concussion and David Njoku on injured reserve. More time in the pocket doesn't manufacture separation. On the ground the Rams are first in run-block win rate at 77% with Kyren Williams at 5.1 a carry behind two full yards before contact, the best mark in this group, against a Chargers front that's fourth in run-stop win rate but has conceded nine rushing touchdowns. The way this gets close is Herbert's legs, 168 rushing yards with five explosive runs against a Rams interior down to Ty Hamilton, and the fact that Los Angeles is 32nd in special teams by DVOA and on its third kicker in three weeks.