Coleman's 35-yard score with 2:04 left backdoors Patriots -6.5 by 1.5

A point and a half, and it died late. New England led 24-13 with 12:39 to play before Malik Willis found Kevin Coleman Jr. for 35 yards with 2:04 left. That is as close as a loss gets. The slot read was right, since Drake Maye went 16 of 20 for 199 yards with touchdowns to Kyle Williams and DeMario Douglas, the target leader we named. What we got wrong was the size of it: a team that trails 13-3 at halftime has no business being laid 6.5.

Miami is 1-5 with a minus-59 point differential and the worst coverage unit in football, allowing plus 0.28 EPA per pass and a 116.8 passer rating that leads the league, while generating one sack a game, which is also last. We make it Patriots -8.5; the market says -7. New England is a tight-end-and-slot offense, with Hunter Henry leading the team in receiving yards, DeMario Douglas leading it in targets and Rhamondre Stevenson at 20 catches out of the backfield, and Miami ranks 31st against tight ends by adjusted fantasy points allowed, the most exploitable positional matchup on the slate, with a rookie middle linebacker and three of its top four corners hurt. The Patriots also blitz at 40.2%, third in the league, and play sub package on 76% of snaps against a Miami line that allows pressure on 45.2% of dropbacks, dead last of 32, and is down starting lineman Kadyn Proctor to concussion protocol. The counter is real and it's why we're not laying more: New England has three interior linemen on injured reserve in Alijah Vera-Tucker, Mike Onwenu and Greg Van Roten, has used 10 line combinations this season, and Morgan Moses is working through a foot problem with Chop Robinson, who leads the NFL in pressure rate at 23.4%, lining up over that side. Drake Maye is also tied for the league lead with 10 turnovers including three end-zone interceptions, all three in losses, and Malik Willis is the most efficient runner in this game at 6.4 a carry against a Patriots front with the 29th-ranked stuff rate that missed 16 tackles at Chicago.