Emmanwori's fourth-down stop at the 2 kills Cardinals +11.5 in a 17-3 loss

Seahawks 17, Cardinals 3, and we missed by two and a half. The case was Seattle's last-ranked red-zone defense letting a two-score dog hang around. Arizona got there twice and came away with one field goal. The game ended on a four-down stand at the 2 with about four and a half minutes left, Nick Emmanwori batting away Gardner Minshew's fourth-down throw to Trey McBride. Tyler Allgeier managed 46 yards on 17 carries. Seattle scored 17 with Drew Lock starting in place of Sam Darnold and still won by 14.

Seattle has the best defense in the league by yards allowed per play at 4.2 and by yards allowed per pass attempt at 5.1, and Arizona is starting Gardner Minshew II, named the Week 9 starter over Jacoby Brissett with rookie Carson Beck as the backup. The Cardinals have no running backs: James Conner, Trey Benson and rookie Jeremiyah Love are all on injured reserve, Bam Knight is headed for the concussion protocol, and Tyler Allgeier's 72 carries for 323 yards is the whole plan. Their one real weapon is Trey McBride, 66 catches on 85 targets for 544 yards and five touchdowns, and a tight end working the middle is how you move the ball on a defense built to take away the perimeter, so Arizona won't be shut out. The reason we'll take the points instead of laying them is Seattle's red-zone defense, which is 32nd in the league at 83.3%: the Seahawks keep you out of there and allow 19.9 a game, but they give up touchdowns once you arrive, and that is how a dog survives a two-score number. Seattle's own offense is 18th in yards per play with Sam Darnold at nine interceptions, and almost all of it is Jaxon Smith-Njigba, 985 yards and nine touchdowns in eight games, against an Arizona secondary without Will Johnson. Emanuel Wilson's 403 rushing yards behind a line with Charles Cross questionable is Seattle's path to 30, and Walter Nolen III being questionable for Arizona makes that easier. We make it Seahawks -11; the market says -11.5, half a point and a lean.