Carson Wentz goes 8 for 25 with two picks and Vikings +3.5 is buried

We wrote that Carson Wentz had been fine in relief and that the quarterback question cost less here than it looked. That was the pick, and it was wrong. Wentz went 8 of 25 for 81 yards with two interceptions, Dorian Williams took one of them, and Minnesota never reached the end zone. Will Reichard's two field goals were the entire offense in a 23-6 loss on 178 total yards. Vikings +3.5 missed by 13.5 points. The defense held up its end. We talked ourselves past the side that decided it.

Minnesota has the best scoring defense in football at 13.3 a game, the most sacks per game at 3.6 and the best red-zone defense in the league at 25%, and Buffalo has the best offense at 33.3 points and 8.7 yards per pass attempt. That's the game, and the market says the Bills win it by a field goal on the road. Josh Allen is Buffalo's run game as much as James Cook III is, 55 carries for 270 yards and nine rushing touchdowns next to Cook's 707 at 5.1, and that's the specific problem for a Vikings front built to make a quarterback hold the ball rather than to chase one who leaves the pocket. Minnesota's trouble is the other side: 27th in scoring at 20.0 and 29th in yards per play, with Kyler Murray questionable on a hamstring and Christian Darrisaw questionable at left tackle. Carson Wentz has been fine in relief, three touchdowns and no interceptions with a 106.4 rating in two games, so the quarterback question costs less here than it looks, which is why we'll take the points without needing Friday's news. Aaron Jones Sr. at 458 yards and Justin Jefferson at 335 in six games have to produce something, and with DJ Moore and Joshua Palmer both questionable for Buffalo this profiles as a 20-17 night where a field goal decides the number. We make it Bills -3; the market says -3.5, a half-point lean on Minnesota for the second week running.