Burrow's 24-of-29 in Madrid buries Atlanta as Bengals -3 cashes by 14

Bengals 34, Falcons 17, and three points was never in play after halftime. Burrow went 24 of 29 for 271 and three touchdowns, Ja'Marr Chase piled up 155 yards on ten catches, and Cincinnati scored on every first-half possession. Fourteen points clear of the number on our top play. One correction we owe you: we said the pass rush would eat Michael Penix behind a patched line, and Cincinnati didn't record a single sack. Bijan Robinson got his 100 yards too. Right read, wrong engine.

Cincinnati is second in the league in scoring at 29.4 a game and first in the NFL on third down at 52.9%, and Joe Burrow's 20 touchdowns against six interceptions at 7.9 a throw is the best quarterback play in this game by a distance. Atlanta counters with Michael Penix Jr. at 7.6 a throw with nine touchdowns and five interceptions, and a defense that's 19th in opponent third-down rate, which is the exact soft spot a Burrow offense lives in. Madrid means neither side gets home field, so this is a straight talent question on a neutral field. Atlanta's path is Bijan Robinson and it's a real one: 150 carries at 5.2 a crack against a Bengals front that's 29th in yards allowed per rush at 4.8, so if the Falcons stay on schedule and make this 24-21, three points is plenty. What we don't believe is that Atlanta can keep up through the air, because Drake London has one touchdown on 63 targets and two Falcons offensive linemen are on reserve lists in front of a Cincinnati front that's third in sacks per game at 3.3. James Pearce Jr. is back from suspension after leading Atlanta with 10.5 sacks a year ago, and he's the one new thing on this card that argues the other way, but Burrow has been sacked just 13 times in seven games. We make it Bengals -7; the market says -3, the widest gap on the board and our top play.