Spencer Shrader's 59 and 50 yarders bust Cowboys -5.5 in a four-point win

Cowboys 27, Colts 23, which is a win for Dallas and a loss for us by a point and a half. We flipped off Colts +6 after the Quenton Nelson and DeForest Buckner trades and said plainly that a late Indianapolis score inside the number was very live. It was. Spencer Shrader hit from 59 and 50 to put Indy ahead 23-20 with 1:37 left. Dallas piled up 508 yards to 271 and gave most of it back on 14 penalties for 153. Jonathan Taylor's 46 yards were the only part we got right.

Revised Saturday, Nov. 7, before kickoff: Wednesday's pick was Colts +6 at Conviction 2, and we've flipped it to Cowboys -5.5 and cut it to a lean. The Wednesday case was Jonathan Taylor running at a Dallas defense that allows 5.0 yards a carry, but our number came from season stats built mostly with Quenton Nelson at left guard and DeForest Buckner inside on defense, and both were traded on Oct. 27. In the first game without them Taylor had 23 yards on eight carries in the 42-7 loss at Jacksonville, and Bernhard Raimann can't cover for the interior from left tackle. Buckner matters as much going the other way: he was the inside rush that had to move Dak Prescott off his spot, and without him Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens should have time to work against a defense allowing 27.8 points a game. Daniel Jones keeps the job at a 60.4% completion rate with the second-lowest QBR of his career. What keeps this a lean is Dallas's own defense, which has allowed 20 or more points in every game and just gave up 33 to Arizona at home, so a late Indianapolis score inside the number is very live. We now make it Cowboys -6. Wednesday's version is kept in the published record.