Devon Key's goal-line interception saves Broncos -2.5 in a 26-21 win

Broncos 26, Panthers 21, a cover by exactly two and a half with no room left over. Carolina had first and goal at the Denver 1 leading 14-13 late in the third when Devon Key came up with a ball deflected off Tommy Tremble, and a challenge confirmed it. Nik Bonitto strip-sacked Bryce Young at 1:24 to end it. Honest accounting: Young threw for 276 and three touchdowns and outplayed Bo Nix, Denver's front managed three sacks with none from Zach Allen, and a failed two-point try nearly cost us the number.

Carolina is playing without both starting tackles, Ikem Ekwonu and Taylor Moton, with Damien Lewis and Corey Bullock questionable inside, and Bryce Young has already been sacked 23 times in seven games behind the healthy version of that line. What the Panthers lose with those two out is the edge of the run game and any chance of holding up on true dropbacks, against a Denver front that's sixth in sacks per game at 2.9 with Zach Allen at 4.5. Here is Carolina's answer if the rush doesn't get home, and it's a decent one: Chuba Hubbard has 540 yards at 4.6 a carry, Tetairoa McMillan has 569 receiving yards, and Young has been good this season at 7.1 a throw with 13 touchdowns and five interceptions, so a quick game that gets the ball out in under two seconds beats this plan. The reason we can't lay more is Denver's offense, 27th in yards per play and 32nd on third down at 29.7%, with Bo Nix at 6.0 a throw and J.K. Dobbins at 3.3 a carry, so the Broncos have to win 20-13. Denver's defense is tenth in yards per play, eighth in opponent red-zone rate and allows 20.6 a game, which is how a bad offense covers a small number. We make it Broncos -4; the market says -2.5.