Jake Bates' four field goals carry Lions -7 past Miami in a 19-9 grind

Lions 19, Dolphins 9, a three-point cover and not remotely the way we drew it. We said Jared Goff would carve up the league's worst pass defense. He threw for 170 with no touchdowns and an interception, ending a 30-game streak. The cover came from Jake Bates going four for four and a Detroit defense missing Kerby Joseph and Jack Campbell holding Miami to three field goals and 0-for-3 in the red zone. Jahmyr Gibbs scored the only touchdown on fourth and one. Right side, wrong reason.

Miami is 32nd in the league in yards allowed per pass attempt at 7.9 and 29th in sacks per game at 1.3, which is the worst possible pairing to put in front of Jared Goff, who's at 7.9 a throw with 15 touchdowns and one interception. Detroit's offense is third in scoring at 29.0 with Jahmyr Gibbs at 773 rushing yards and Amon-Ra St. Brown at 53 catches, and there's no plausible Dolphins answer in coverage. The reason this isn't a bigger number is Detroit's own back end and front: Kerby Joseph is out, D.J. Reed is questionable, Avonte Maddox and Thomas Harper are on injured reserve, Jack Campbell is doubtful after leading the team in tackles, and two offensive line starters are out with the center questionable. Miami's run path is Ollie Gordon II at 408 yards and 4.5 a carry plus Malik Willis's legs, 36 carries for 225 yards and three scores, and against a thinned Detroit front that's how the Dolphins keep this a game. De'Von Achane's torn ACL is the hole nobody fills, Miami is 31st in scoring at 16.7 and 1-6 with no home wins, and 27-16 is the likeliest version of the afternoon. We make it Lions -8.5; the market says -7.