Jordan Love's four touchdowns and 372 yards blow out Packers +3 cover

Packers 45, Patriots 27, three points plus 18 more on a game we called a true coin flip. Jordan Love went 23 of 29 for 372 with three touchdown passes, ran one in, and added a two-point conversion. Christian Watson had 171 yards and Matthew Golden 164. Xavier McKinney picked Drake Maye twice on the way to four Green Bay takeaways. We said Love would have to throw it 35 times against a top-ten scoring defense. He threw 29 and averaged 12.8 a crack. Best possible version of no edge.

This is the second game where we have no edge: we make it Patriots -3 and the market says -3. New England's passing offense is second in the league at 8.5 yards per attempt with Drake Maye at 15 touchdowns, and Green Bay's coverage is third at 5.7 allowed, so the game turns on whether the Packers' front can win anything without Micah Parsons, who tore an ACL, and without Javon Hargrave and Edgerrin Cooper. New England has the mirror-image problem, with Mike Onwenu, Greg Van Roten and Alijah Vera-Tucker all on injured reserve, which is three guards and a reason Maye has taken 16 sacks. Green Bay cannot run the football at all, 2.9 yards a carry and dead last, with MarShawn Lloyd at 2.6 and Jordan Love adding nothing on the ground, so Love has to throw it 35 times against a Patriots defense that's ninth in scoring at 20.3. Rhamondre Stevenson at 3.8 a carry plus Maye's own 46 rushes for 216 yards and three scores is New England's run game, and that's the quiet way the Patriots control a game they don't dominate. A.J. Brown is questionable with an ankle and has missed five games, Hunter Henry is questionable and TreVeyon Henderson has an illness, so New England's skill group is as uncertain as Green Bay's with Christian Watson playing on a broken rib. Watson is the Packers' leading receiver at 708 yards, and if he can't finish the game this number is wrong by a point in the other direction.