Fagnano's 10-of-18 for 60 yards buries Baltimore as Jaguars -9.5 cashes

Baltimore's third quarterback threw like a third quarterback. Joe Fagnano went 10 of 18 for 60 yards with interceptions to Montaric Brown and Jourdan Lewis, and the Ravens managed 227 yards against Jacksonville's 319. Trevor Lawrence was 16 of 26 for 242 with a 50-yard strike to Parker Washington, Cam Little made all four field goals, and Derrick Henry was held to 57 yards on 17 carries. Jaguars 33, Ravens 10, clearing -9.5 by 13.5 points. Right side, right reason. Justice Hill's 65-yard run was all Baltimore had.

Baltimore's third quarterback is an undrafted rookie with a brace on his ankle whose one NFL appearance was 10 of 21 for 91 yards with an interception. Joe Fagnano makes his first start because Lamar Jackson's thumb reportedly needs surgery and is sending him to injured reserve, and because Tyler Huntley's turf toe is reportedly ending his season. That lands on a Jacksonville defense that's second in scoring at 15.9 a game and first in the league against the run at 3.4 a carry, which takes away the one thing Baltimore can still do: Derrick Henry has 158 carries at 4.0 with eight scores, and the Ravens need him to control the night. DaVon Hamilton's season-ending injury thins that Jaguars front, so Henry will find more than the raw rank suggests, but Jacksonville can play two deep all night against a quarterback who has thrown 21 NFL passes. The other half matters too, because Trevor Lawrence is having the best year of his career at 8.5 a throw with 17 touchdowns and four interceptions, and Parker Washington (27 for 432) and Jakobi Meyers, questionable with a hamstring, have carried the volume while Brian Thomas Jr. sits at 10 catches. Kyle Hamilton and Roquan Smith are why this isn't 14: Baltimore is 15th in yards allowed per play and can hold a game at 20-10 for three quarters. We make it Jaguars -10.5; the market says -9.5, so this is a one-point disagreement and a medium play, not a statement.