Puka Nacua's 150 yards and Myles Garrett's three sacks cash Rams -5.5

Rams 20, Commanders 13, a cover by a point and a half and it was live to the last snap. Tied 13-13 into the fourth, Matthew Stafford found Puka Nacua for the only touchdown of the quarter, and Nacua finished with 14 catches for 150. The lever we priced was Kyren Williams running at Washington's gutted interior. He got 45 yards on 15 carries. What actually won it was Myles Garrett, three sacks in his first game back after seven out. Stafford's elbow held up. The reasoning didn't.

Washington has lost all three starting defensive tackles, Daron Payne, Jer'Zhan Newton and Javon Kinlaw, to injured reserve, and Laremy Tunsil and Terry McLaurin are gone too, which is a lot of a football team. What that costs them specifically is the ability to hold the point of attack, and Kyren Williams (548 yards at 4.9) behind a Rams offense that's fifth in yards per rush is the way to make a thin interior look worse. Washington's reply is Jayden Daniels, who has 236 rushing yards on 27 carries in five games and is the Commanders' run game as much as anybody, against a Rams defense that's lost Myles Garrett, Kobie Turner and Poona Ford and sits 28th in sacks per game at 1.5, so Daniels will have time and grass. Washington is also 30th in opponent red-zone rate at 79.2%, which is how a favorite covers a number this size. The hesitation is Matthew Stafford's throwing arm: he left Sunday with ice on his right elbow, he's questionable, Sean McVay says there's no concern, and if Stetson Bennett IV starts then this number is three or four points different and the pick is dead. We make it Rams -6 with Stafford playing; the market says -5.5, so it's a half-point lean and we're calling it that rather than dressing it up.