Cousins' three interceptions bury Raiders +10 in a 38-17 San Francisco win

49ers 38, Raiders 17, eleven points short of the number. Our whole premise was that Kirk Cousins wouldn't get hit, and he didn't. San Francisco recorded zero sacks all day. He threw three interceptions anyway and lost a fumble, and Jaden Dugger took one back 35 yards for a touchdown on the first play of the second half. Brock Bowers went for 111 and a score and also put the ball on the ground. Ashton Jeanty finished with 25 rushing yards and five catches for minus five. Correct fact, wrong conclusion.

Start with the thing that actually keeps Las Vegas in this: Kirk Cousins has been sacked 11 times in eight games, among the fewest in football, and he has 19 touchdowns against five interceptions at 7.5 a throw behind Kolton Miller, Jackson Powers-Johnson and Tyler Linderbaum. San Francisco is 19th in sacks per game at 2.1, Nick Bosa has played two games with no sacks, has missed the last four and is questionable again with reported optimism he returns, and Keion White's 3.5 leads the team, so the 49ers are likelier to win this with coverage than with pressure. That matters because the Raiders are a two-tight-end offense rather than a team with a tight end: Brock Bowers has 41 catches for 547 yards and five touchdowns in six games and Michael Mayer has 36 on 43 targets, and together they are the structure of the passing game. The likely San Francisco plan, going on what they've done all season, is to handle Bowers in the middle with Fred Warner and a safety, Ji'Ayir Brown or Malik Mustapha, and leave Deommodore Lenoir and the corners on the outside receivers rather than travelling anyone with him; if they do tilt help that way, the beneficiary profiles as Tre Tucker, 474 yards on 48 targets at 16.3 a catch, with Mayer working the opposite seam. Now the hard part, and it is hard: Las Vegas is 32nd in the league in yards allowed per carry at 5.1 and 32nd in yards allowed per play at 6.1, San Francisco is sixth in yards per rush, and Christian McCaffrey has eight touchdowns, so the blowout path is simply handing it off 35 times and never letting Cousins on the field. What caps that path is the 49ers receiving room: Brandon Aiyuk is out, Mike Evans is questionable with an Achilles, Deebo Samuel Sr. is questionable with a hamstring, Ricky Pearsall is on injured reserve and Christian Kirk has one game and no catches, which leaves George Kittle (34 for 425, five touchdowns) and a lot of Brandin Cooks. The Raiders can't run it either, 31st at 3.0 a carry with Ashton Jeanty at 3.1, though Jeanty has 37 catches for 376 yards and Mike Washington Jr. has been the more effective runner at 4.3, so Las Vegas has to score in the 20s through the air to make this work. Maxx Crosby has three sacks in eight games and nobody has helped him, so Brock Purdy (15 touchdowns, four interceptions, 8.3 a throw, seven sacks taken) should be comfortable, and that is why our number is still near double digits rather than six. We make it 49ers -9.5; the market says -10, so this is a half-point lean on the Raiders and nothing like a homer pick, and if 9.5 were the only number available we'd pass on the game.