Geno Smith sacked five times as Jets +9.5 dies in a 35-12 Kansas City rout

Chiefs 35, Jets 12, and 9.5 points was never close. We took the dog because Kansas City ranked 29th in sacks and Geno Smith would see clean pockets. He got sacked five times for 42 yards. The red zone flaw we did name turned out to be the whole story: New York got there once, scored zero touchdowns, and all 12 points came off Jason Sanders field goals. Kenneth Walker III put up 143 scrimmage yards and three scores. Thirteen and a half the wrong way.

There's no edge here and we'll say so plainly: we make it Chiefs -9.5 and the market says -9.5. The reason we'll take the points anyway is that the Jets move the ball and Kansas City doesn't get to the quarterback. New York is fifth in the league at 8.0 yards per pass attempt with Geno Smith at 12 touchdowns and three interceptions, and the Chiefs are 29th in sacks per game at 1.3 with George Karlaftis at two on the season, so Smith should see clean pockets. What has buried the Jets all year is the red zone, 42.3% and last in the NFL, and that's the flaw that turns a competitive afternoon into a 10-point loss. Kansas City's cover is Kenneth Walker III, 770 yards at 5.5 a carry behind the league's best rushing efficiency at 5.1 a play, against a Jets run defense that's 14th at 4.0, plus a red-zone defense that's third in football at 38.9%. The Jets can answer on the ground with Braelon Allen at 565 yards and 5.0 a carry and Breece Hall expected back from a quad, which is how a double-digit dog stays inside two scores. Garrett Wilson is questionable with a concussion and he's the one receiver who changes the math, so this is a coin flip by our own number and we're taking the dog because that's the side a 10-point line makes you earn.