Bucky Irving's two scores cash Buccaneers +6.5 in a last-second 27-24 loss

Bears 27, Buccaneers 24 on a Cairo Santos field goal as the clock hit zero, and six and a half points cashes by three and a half. No backdoor here. Bucky Irving ran for 97 and both touchdowns, and Baker Mayfield ran in a two-point conversion to tie it at 24 with 2:51 left. Tampa never touched the ball again. Chicago turned it over five times, four of them Caleb Williams interceptions, and still won because Jaylon Johnson took a Mayfield pass 67 yards for a score. Our ranked play, earned.

Tampa Bay runs the ball better than anybody in the league at 168.6 yards a game, with Bucky Irving at 728 yards and 5.0 a carry and a team average of 5.1 that's second in football. Chicago's defense is 31st in yards allowed per play at 6.0 and 31st in yards per pass attempt at 7.7, and while the Bears are first in the NFL in opponent third-down rate at 23.8%, the way to beat a bend-but-don't-break defense is to never hand it a third down. Chicago just traded for Jeffery Simmons to fix the interior, but Grady Jarrett is questionable with a groin while Dayo Odeyingbo and left tackle Braxton Jones are on injured reserve, so the front is in flux at the worst time. Going the other way, Tampa's defense is fifth in scoring at 18.9, fifth in yards per play at 4.9 and has 16 takeaways, tied for second in the league, against a Caleb Williams offense that has been efficient in his five games at 8.0 a throw with six touchdowns and one interception, and D'Andre Swift's 10 rushing touchdowns are Chicago's run path and a real one. The honest problem with this pick is that Tampa Bay cannot throw: they're last in the NFL at 5.7 yards per pass attempt, Baker Mayfield is just back from a dislocated right thumb and has attempted 14 passes in two games, and Emeka Egbuka is questionable with a foot injury, which leaves Chris Godwin Jr. and his 243 yards as the top target. We make it Bears -4; the market says -6.5, and we'll take a run-game and turnover edge against a defense that gives up six yards a snap.