The Draft · Mock draft, edition 1
2027 NFL mock draft, way too early: we played out the season first
Every remaining game, the playoffs and Super Bowl LXI projected before a single name goes on the board. Tennessee picks first, the Jets pick three times in the top 12, and the Raiders are on the clock at 14.
Most way-too-early mock drafts take today's standings and stop there. This one plays the season out first. All 151 games left on the schedule were simulated 20,000 times, followed by the playoffs and then the order the league would set from the result. The players come from this site's midseason top 100, published this morning.
The short version: Tennessee, Miami and the Chargers all project to 4-13, and the Titans get No. 1 because they have the weakest full-season schedule of the three. They're also the most likely No. 1 pick in the simulations, at 36 percent. The Jets hold three of the first 12 picks. San Francisco beats Buffalo in Super Bowl LXI, a game the ratings call 52-48, so the Niners pick last.
The Raiders project to 8-9 and miss the playoffs, which puts them at No. 14. They make the field in 17 percent of simulations, and in the middle 80 percent the pick lands anywhere from 7 to 21. With Fernando Mendoza in place as the quarterback of the future, the pick goes where the roster has been thin since April: the middle of the defensive line.
Six quarterbacks go in the first round, which would tie the record set in 1983 and matched in 2024. Arch Manning isn't one of them.
It's way too early, and every part of this will move. The trade deadline is Nov. 10, underclassmen have until January to declare, and half a season is still left to play. The method, the projected standings and the full bracket are at the bottom.
The first round at a glance
- 1TitansJeremiah Smith WR, Ohio State
- 2ChargersColin Simmons EDGE, Texas
- 3DolphinsDrew Mestemaker QB, Oklahoma State
- 4EaglesLeonard Moore CB, Notre Dame
- 5JetsDarian Mensah QB, Miami
- 6JetsXavier Gilliam DL, Tennessee
- 7CardinalsCJ Carr QB, Notre Dame
- 8SaintsDylan Stewart EDGE, South Carolina
- 9CommandersCharlie Becker WR, Indiana
- 10RavensJordan Seaton OT, LSU
- 11FalconsTrevor Lauck OT, Iowa
- 12JetsAshton Hampton CB, Clemson
- 13TexansChris Cole LB, Georgia
- 14RaidersWill Echoles DL, Ole Miss
- 15PanthersKelley Jones CB, Mississippi State
- 16BrownsTrinidad Chambliss QB, Ole Miss
- 17SeahawksWill Heldt EDGE, Clemson
- 18BrownsGreg Johnson IOL, Minnesota
- 19GiantsDevan Thompkins EDGE, Alabama
- 20CowboysEllis Robinson IV CB, Georgia
- 21PatriotsKJ Duff WR, Rutgers
- 22ChiefsLance Heard OT, Kentucky
- 23SteelersAustin Simmons QB, Missouri
- 24VikingsDante Moore QB, Oregon
- 25BuccaneersNick Marsh WR, Indiana
- 26LionsTrey'Dez Green TE, LSU
- 27BroncosCarter Smith OT, Indiana
- 28BengalsKade Pieper IOL, Iowa
- 29TitansJadan Baugh RB, Florida
- 30JaguarsKJ Bolden S, Georgia
- 31BillsKingston Lopa S, California
- 3249ersYhonzae Pierre EDGE, Alabama
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1
Proj.4-13, misses the playoffs · likely range picks 1 to 6
The board's No. 1 player goes first, and it isn't a luxury. Tennessee's season comes down to one question: is Cam Ward the quarterback? The Titans spent last April's No. 4 pick on receiver Carnell Tate and paid Wan'Dale Robinson, and the offense still has 144 points through eight games, fourth-fewest in the league. Smith is 6-4 and 222 with 62 catches for 1,067 yards and 13 touchdowns in eight games, and Kiper counts six drops on 289 career targets.
The case against: Tennessee just traded Jeffery Simmons, and the defensive front needs bodies. The Titans own Chicago's pick at 29 for that. At No. 1 you take the sure thing and find out about your quarterback.
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2
Proj.4-13, misses the playoffs · likely range picks 1 to 9
The Chargers' problem is the offense. Justin Herbert has five touchdown passes against 10 interceptions, and the team's 99 points are the fewest in the league. But Herbert is signed through 2029, and the interior line needs veterans more than a top-three pick. The clock that's actually running is Khalil Mack's. He's 35, back on a one-year deal and a free agent in March.
Simmons is the most productive rusher in the class. Through six games he led the FBS in sacks (10.5) and tackles for loss (16), including five sacks at Tennessee. The flags are his 246 pounds and the high ankle sprain from the Florida game. Los Angeles can live with the first and will check on the second.
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3
Proj.4-13, misses the playoffs · likely range picks 1 to 8
Miami is in year zero: a new general manager in Jon-Eric Sullivan, a new coach in Jeff Hafley, Tua Tagovailoa released and Malik Willis signed to bridge the gap. Willis hasn't closed the question, and the Dolphins' 117 points are the second-fewest in the league.
Mestemaker is the board's top quarterback. He's a former walk-on who led the FBS in passing yards at North Texas last year, and in the Big 12 he's second nationally with 2,649 yards, plus 25 touchdowns and, by Kiper's count, an FBS-high 41 completions of 20-plus yards. The seven interceptions come from trusting his arm in tight windows, and the release is unorthodox. The real question is 23 career starts. As a redshirt sophomore he could go back to Stillwater.
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4
Proj.5-12, misses the playoffs · likely range picks 2 to 11
Philadelphia at 5-12 is the most surprising name this high, and the reason is medical. Jalen Hurts has a deep-vein clot and clots in both lungs, is on blood thinners and is likely out for the season, though the team expects a full recovery. The Eagles have lost six straight without him. The projection treats it as a lost year, not a collapse, and so should the pick.
Tackle is a need now that Lane Johnson has retired, but Moore is the No. 2 player on the board, and Riq Woolen's one-year deal leaves Quinyon Mitchell without a long-term partner. Moore has seven interceptions and 23 breakups over three seasons, and quarterbacks have mostly stopped throwing at him. Renner had him allowing about half a yard per coverage snap through mid-October. The nitpicks are a concussion that cost him the Stanford game and a 15.4 percent missed-tackle rate last season.
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5
Proj.5-12, misses the playoffs · likely range picks 2 to 12
The Jets hold three of the first 12 picks, and the first one has to be a quarterback. Geno Smith is 36, and his 8.0 yards a throw make him a decent bridge, not the answer. Aaron Glenn's seat is hot enough that a new coach could be making this call.
Mensah is completing 80.7 percent of his passes, with 25 touchdowns and one interception for an unbeaten Miami. He's a touch passer who works through progressions and stands in against the blitz. The limits are physical: average velocity when he has to drive a ball into a tight window, and a 205-pound frame. Miami's schedule has been light, so Saturday's trip to Notre Dame is the game scouts are waiting for.
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6
Proj.Colts 6-11, misses the playoffs · likely range picks 3 to 14
Indianapolis's slide is New York's gain. The Colts are 2-6, sent Quenton Nelson to Seattle and DeForest Buckner back to San Francisco last week, and project to 6-11. That turns the pick from last year's Sauce Gardner trade into a top-six selection.
The Jets traded Quinnen Williams to Dallas last fall, and the interior has missed him. Gilliam is the biggest riser in the class. He was a Penn State backup in 2025, followed coordinator Jim Knowles to Tennessee, and has 11.5 tackles for loss, six sacks and two forced fumbles in eight games. He's a 6-2, 305-pounder who wins with first-step quickness, mostly from the nose, and his sacks have come against Texas, Arkansas and South Carolina. The question is whether a one-year starter his size holds up against the run.
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7
Proj.6-11, misses the playoffs · likely range picks 4 to 15
Arizona released Kyler Murray in March. Its quarterbacks now are Jacoby Brissett, whose deal ends after this season, Gardner Minshew and third-round rookie Carson Beck. Minshew's comeback in Dallas (17 of 23, 188 yards, three touchdowns) was fun. It isn't a plan, and the Cardinals' 238 points allowed are the most in the league, so this roster needs a cheap starter to build around.
Carr's game is processing. He reads coverage quickly, throws with touch and timing, and has one interception in 222 attempts for a 7-1 Notre Dame. The arm is good, not great, and that caps his ceiling for some evaluators. He's a redshirt sophomore who could return. Saturday he and Mensah share a field.
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8
Proj.6-11, misses the playoffs · likely range picks 3 to 19
Cam Jordan has said 2026 is his last season, and New Orleans needs the next one. The Saints also lost Bryan Bresee to a knee injury in camp, and the run defense has suffered for it. Stewart is the right answer to the bigger long-term problem.
He has the best physical tools among this year's edge rushers: long, explosive and loose enough to bend under tackles. The 2026 sample is small, because a back injury cost him two games and a punch against Alabama cost him another. The Florida game showed the ceiling, with a sack and two forced fumbles on 29 snaps. He has nine career forced fumbles but only 13 sacks in three seasons, and teams will dig into the back and the Alabama incident before spending a top-10 pick. Falling three spots past his board rank is the discount for that homework.
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9
Proj.6-10-1, misses the playoffs · likely range picks 4 to 20
Terry McLaurin tore his patellar tendon on Oct. 19 and is out for the season at 31, and Stefon Diggs, Treylon Burks and Dyami Brown are all headed for free agency. Jayden Daniels needs someone to throw to in 2027.
Becker is a 6-4, 208-pound vertical receiver who tracks the ball and attacks it at the catch point: 50 catches for 875 yards and nine touchdowns at 17.5 a catch. His best game came against the best defense he's seen, nine catches for 165 yards against Ohio State. Renner had him without a drop in 65 career opportunities as of mid-October. The remaining question is long speed, and Kiper expects a fast 40.
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10
Proj.7-10, misses the playoffs · likely range picks 6 to 18
Baltimore projects to 7-10 because of one snap. Lamar Jackson hurt his throwing thumb on the first play in Buffalo, and Jesse Minter says he'll need surgery and go on injured reserve, possibly for the rest of the year. That's why the Ravens are picking this high, and it's also why the pick isn't a quarterback: Jackson is 29 and signed through 2027.
The line is the long-term need. Ronnie Stanley is 32 with a non-guaranteed salary next year. Seaton has 30 career starts, all at left tackle, and has allowed no sacks and three pressures in eight LSU starts, per Kiper. His athleticism drives the grade. The concerns are play strength against power and a 52.0 PFF run-blocking grade last year, plus a knee injury that ended his 2025 early.
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11
Proj.7-10, misses the playoffs · likely range picks 5 to 19
Atlanta's new front office of Kevin Stefanski, Ian Cunningham and Matt Ryan didn't have a first-round pick last April. Its first one goes to the line in front of Michael Penix Jr.: Jake Matthews is 34, and Jawaan Taylor is on a one-year deal. Penix's four-interception shutout in Tampa says the quarterback question isn't closed, but the Falcons shouldn't spend a top-12 pick on it until they know.
Lauck has climbed to the top of Kiper's tackle rankings. He's started all of Iowa's games at left tackle and allowed no sacks and four pressures by Kiper's count, and Iowa's line has given up the fewest sacks in the Big Ten. He wins with footwork, balance and hands rather than power, which is why some evaluators see a guard. Going four spots ahead of his board rank is the price of the position.
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12
Proj.Cowboys 8-9, misses the playoffs · likely range picks 6 to 26
This is the pick from the Quinnen Williams trade. New York gets the earlier of Dallas's two firsts, and the Cowboys' own pick comes first in 72 percent of simulations. Dallas projects to 8-9, which puts it here.
Add it up and the Jets take a quarterback with their own pick, then a defensive tackle and a corner with the picks they got for trading a corner and a defensive tackle. Hampton is a 6-2, 205-pound true junior who played safety and receiver in high school. He has one interception and nine passes defended in eight games, and opponents average 2.3 yards per throw his way, seventh in the nation per Kiper. He moves fluidly for his size and tackles. The question is ball production: four interceptions in three seasons.
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13
Proj.8-9, misses the playoffs · likely range picks 6 to 23
Houston is 2-5, but the ratings like the Texans more than the record, and they project to 8-9. Tackle was the first need, with Tytus Howard traded and Braden Smith on a two-year deal, but Lauck is gone. The second need is the one general manager Nick Caserio has been blunt about: he's called his team the league's worst at tackling, after the Giants ran for 188 yards on them.
Cole is a 6-3, 235-pound junior who Georgia uses inside, on the edge and in coverage, and he's produced everywhere. He has 49 tackles, 3.5 sacks and three fumble recoveries, one returned 85 yards for a touchdown against Oklahoma, and Kiper credits him with 8.5 tackles for loss and 16 pressures through seven games. The question is where he lives in the NFL. DeMeco Ryans will find a spot.
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14
Proj.8-9, misses the playoffs · likely range picks 7 to 21
The Raiders pick exactly where the board has him. Las Vegas projects to 8-9, and the schedule is why it isn't better. Five of the last nine are on the road: at San Francisco on Sunday, at Denver, at Cleveland, at Arizona and at Kansas City in Week 18. The Raiders get to the playoffs in 17 percent of simulations, and this pick lands between 7 and 21 in the middle 80 percent.
The need hasn't changed since April. The 2026 draft brought 10 players and no defensive tackle until Brandon Cleveland in the seventh round, a gap PFF flagged right after the draft. Jonah Laulu was waived last week, and on Sunday the Jets ran for 147 yards through Braelon Allen in a game the Raiders won by five. A 3-4 defense lives on the men over the center and guards, and this one hasn't had them.
Echoles is still the top interior lineman in the class for many evaluators. He was first-team All-SEC in 2025 with 11.5 tackles for loss and five sacks, and PFF had him leading Power Four interior linemen with 39 pressures and 35 stops. He's a 6-3, 315-pound junior who's excellent against the run and can beat double teams, which is the job. The sacks haven't come this fall, 1.5 in eight games, and scouts will want to see pressure turn into finishes.
Also considered: Minnesota guard-center Greg Johnson, with Jackson Powers-Johnson playing zero snaps against the Jets, and Mississippi State corner Kelley Jones. Opinion, clearly labeled: the quarterback is in the building. The next three drafts are about the lines, and this is where that starts.
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15
Proj.8-9, misses the playoffs · likely range picks 6 to 25
Carolina's line problem is real. Taylor Moton is out for the season, Ikem Ekwonu is coming back from a ruptured patellar tendon, and Bryce Young was sacked six times in Green Bay. But the Panthers spent April's first-round pick on tackle Monroe Freeling, and the board's best tackles are gone. The secondary is the other hole, and Jones fits a press-heavy plan.
He's a 6-4 corner with long arms who's at his best in press, where he can get his hands on receivers early. He has 18 pass breakups since the start of 2025 and 27 tackles in eight games this fall. The concern is fit: Mississippi State plays him off far more often, and Renner sees athletic limits there. He hasn't intercepted a pass this season. Kiper expects him to run well at the combine.
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16
Proj.9-8, misses the playoffs · likely range picks 9 to 23
Cleveland has two firsts, and the order of operations is simple: quarterback here, protection at 18. Deshaun Watson won the job in camp, has been sacked 22 times in four games and has a contract that voids in March. The Browns are 5-3 with a defense built around Jared Verse and a minus 34 point differential, and they need a quarterback who can play next September.
That's Chambliss, the oldest quarterback in the class and the most ready. He's a creator who sees the field, gets the ball out with a compact release and has seven rushing touchdowns. He's at his best in big games, including the win over LSU. The 2026 numbers are a step down: eight interceptions after three all last season, and 63.9 percent completions. He's 6-0, 210 and in a court-granted sixth year, and he turns 25 next August.
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17
Proj.9-8, misses the playoffs · likely range picks 13 to 29
The defending champions miss the playoffs in this projection. Seattle gets in 44 percent of the time, and 9-8 falls a game short. Boye Mafe left for Cincinnati in free agency, and edge rusher is the clearest hole on the roster.
Heldt is a long, relentless rusher at 6-6 and 260 who has improved every year since leaving Purdue. He's at his best getting to a tackle's outside shoulder and finishing through contact, and his closing speed is unusual for his size. Clemson's film review credits him with seven sacks and 11 tackles for loss in eight games, including three two-sack games, though official counts run lower. This is nine spots past his board rank, one of the two biggest reaches in the round, and the need is why.
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18
Proj.Rams 9-8, misses the playoffs · likely range picks 11 to 28
This is the Myles Garrett pick. The Rams sent it, Jared Verse and two more picks to Cleveland, and at a projected 9-8 they fall just short of the playoffs and give the Browns a pick in the teens.
Cleveland allowed eight sacks in Pittsburgh on Sunday, and a rookie quarterback needs better. Johnson is the most versatile interior lineman in the class and, nine weeks in, the most consistent. He opened at left guard, slid to center when Minnesota lost both of its centers, and PFF has him fourth of 299 centers with an 80.1 grade, no sacks and two pressures allowed on 284 pass-block snaps. He's a 6-6, 325-pound four-year starter with snaps at every line spot. The only question is whether he's a guard or a center.
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19
Proj.8-8-1, loses in the wild-card round · likely range picks 9 to 26
The Giants win the NFC East at 8-8-1. They take it in 51 percent of simulations, and the ratings still rate them below average, so they lose at home to Detroit in the wild-card round. That puts them first among the playoff teams.
New York traded Dexter Lawrence to Cincinnati in April, and the middle of the defense needs a big body who can push the pocket. Thompkins is a 300-pounder who can rush from the edge or inside, which is why some boards list him as an end and others as a tackle. His 2026 production is steady rather than loud, with 31 tackles and three sacks in eight games, and evaluators see a better rusher than run defender. Renner ranks him 15th overall.
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20
Proj.Packers 10-7, loses in the wild-card round · likely range picks 14 to 29
This is Green Bay's pick, from the Micah Parsons trade. The Packers make the playoffs at 10-7 as a wild card and lose in Chicago. Dallas keeps it because its own pick lands earlier and goes to the Jets.
The Cowboys' run defense is the bigger problem, but the board's best interior linemen are gone, and corner is still a need even after the trade for Joey Porter Jr. Robinson was a five-star recruit at IMG Academy who became a ballhawk fast: four interceptions and second-team All-SEC in 2025, plus two more picks this fall. Renner had him allowing four first downs on 19 targets through mid-October. Size is the obvious question at 6-0 and 180. He's also a redshirt sophomore who may not declare.
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21
Proj.10-7, loses in the wild-card round · likely range picks 16 to 30
New England is a projected 10-7 wild card that loses in Jacksonville. The Patriots gave up a 2028 first for A.J. Brown in June, and Brown, 29, has already missed five games with ankle and knee problems. Drake Maye needs a receiver he can count on for more than one year.
Duff is 6-6 and 225 and wins above defenders; he led the FBS in contested catches last season. Renner adds that he can win vertically, not just as a big possession target. He has 774 yards and nine touchdowns on a 2-6 Rutgers team, with four 100-yard games. The recent trend is the worry: three catches at Northwestern, then none against Michigan. Scouts will want to know why.
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22
Proj.11-6, loses in the wild-card round · likely range picks 17 to 31
Kansas City is an 11-6 wild card that loses in Cincinnati. The pick is about Patrick Mahomes's blind side. Left tackle Josh Simmons is out for the season with a back injury, right tackle Jaylon Moore has been in the concussion protocol, and the replacements have struggled in pass protection.
Heard is on his third SEC stop after LSU and Tennessee, and this is his cleanest season. He hadn't allowed a sack or a quarterback hit through mid-October, per Renner, and ESPN Analytics has his pressure rate under 2.5 percent. At 6-6 and 325 he's a physical run blocker who's at his best in short yardage. The questions are discipline, after 14 penalties in 2025, and position, since some scouts still project him to guard.
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23
Proj.11-6, loses in the wild-card round · likely range picks 17 to 30
Pittsburgh is 6-2 with a quarterback who turns 43 in December. Aaron Rodgers is on a one-year deal, so the Steelers project as an 11-6 wild card that loses in Denver and then starts looking for his successor.
Simmons has one of the liveliest arms in the class. Jordan Reid ties the whippy left-handed delivery to his pitching background, and he can take something off for touch too. He's thrown 16 touchdowns against two interceptions for a 6-2 Missouri. The rest of the game is still developing: he can be late with reads under pressure, his ball placement comes and goes, and the sample is small. He doesn't turn 21 until Sunday and has a year of eligibility left, so 2028 is a real possibility. Mike McCarthy has developed raw arms before.
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24
Proj.11-6, loses in the wild-card round · likely range picks 18 to 30
Minnesota is 6-1 and has allowed 93 points, the fewest in the league by 18. The projection still has the Vikings finishing 11-6 and losing a wild-card game in Tampa, because FPI rates their offense 4.3 points a game below average. Kyler Murray signed a one-year deal with a no-tag clause, so they can't franchise him in March.
Moore was considered a top prospect for the 2026 draft before returning to Oregon, and his 2025 season (71.8 percent, 30 touchdowns, 13-2 as a starter) still drives his grade. His 2026 lasted four games, 926 yards and nine touchdowns with no interceptions, before a concussion at USC on Sept. 26. Dan Lanning has said he's unlikely to play again this season. Handling pressure is the main question, and he has eligibility left. Kevin O'Connell is the right coach to bet on that.
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25
Proj.8-9, loses in the divisional round · likely range picks 8 to 29
Tampa Bay wins the NFC South at 8-9, beats Minnesota at home and loses in Chicago. This is a team that just won a game without completing a pass, which says plenty about the defense and the run game and something about the receivers. Mike Evans left for San Francisco, and Chris Godwin has no guaranteed money after this season.
Edge rusher was the other option, but Marsh's value at 25 is too good to pass. He's a physical 6-3, 210-pound receiver who's at his best with the ball in his hands, and Renner rates his tackle-breaking after the catch the best in the class. He's averaging 17.6 yards on 38 catches with eight touchdowns, and he just turned 20. The boards split hard on him, 16th for Kiper and 62nd for Renner, over drops and route consistency.
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26
Proj.11-6, loses in the divisional round · likely range picks 16 to 31
Detroit is an 11-6 wild card that wins at the Giants and loses in San Francisco. Sam LaPorta is in the last year of his rookie deal, extension talks ended in early October, and he's said publicly that the team isn't showing him the love.
Green is a 6-7 receiving tight end who wins as a mismatch, and he set LSU's tight end record with seven touchdown catches in 2025. He had 14 catches for 222 yards in under three games this fall before a right knee sprain at Ole Miss cost him four games, and he came back at Auburn with five catches and a score. The concerns are drops (PFF counted five last season) and whether his frame holds up as an in-line blocker.
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27
Proj.11-6, loses in the divisional round · likely range picks 18 to 31
Denver wins the AFC West at 11-6 in a near coin flip with Kansas City, 52 percent to 44, then beats Pittsburgh and loses in Buffalo. Garett Bolles is 34 and Mike McGlinchey is 31, and Bo Nix's line needs a succession plan.
Smith brought 41 straight starts at left tackle into 2026, along with a 2025 consensus All-America season in which PFF had him allowing single-digit pressures over 16 games. He's still protecting for a 7-1 Indiana team. The debate is size: he's listed around 6-4 and 307 with a short-arms label, so Renner ranks him at guard and others see a center. Multiple teams told WalterFootball he's a second-rounder who could go higher on need. Denver has the need, and this is the round's other nine-spot reach.
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28
Proj.12-5, loses in the divisional round · likely range picks 19 to 31
Cincinnati wins the AFC North at 12-5, beats Kansas City and loses in Jacksonville. Joe Burrow just threw for 426 yards and five touchdowns against Tennessee and still got sacked three times. Center Ted Karras and right guard Dalton Risner are both headed for free agency.
Pieper was pegged as Iowa's next center, but after a spring and camp look there he's stayed at right guard and kept stacking clean reps. PFF credits him with two pressures and no sacks allowed on 241 pass-block snaps and a 90.0 pass-blocking grade. He's a refined zone blocker at 6-3 and 298. Scouts will ask about his anchor against big nose tackles and whether he's a center in the NFL.
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29
Proj.Bears 11-6, loses in the conference title game · likely range picks 18 to 31
This is Chicago's pick, from the Jeffery Simmons trade. The Bears win the NFC North at 11-6 in the closest race in the league, then beat Green Bay and Tampa Bay and lose the NFC title game in San Francisco. That's the best case for the Titans' second first-rounder, and it still lands at 29.
Defensive tackle is Tennessee's need with Simmons gone, but the board's best interior linemen went in the top 20. Tony Pollard is 29 and in a contract year, and the board's No. 18 player at 29 is value. Baugh is a 225-pound runner with unusual lateral quickness, and he has 13 rushing touchdowns in eight games. September was loud: 600 yards and 11 scores in four games. Then Missouri, South Carolina and Georgia held him to 110 yards on 44 carries combined, and he has just nine catches. Scouts will ask what he does when the blocking doesn't.
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30
Proj.12-5, loses in the conference title game · likely range picks 21 to 32
Jacksonville has the best point differential in the league at plus 85. The Jaguars win the AFC South at 12-5, beat New England and Cincinnati, and lose the AFC title game in Buffalo, a game the ratings call 54-46. The weak spot has been the deep middle.
Bolden has been a Georgia regular since 2024, when he made the SEC All-Freshman team, and he projects as a center-field free safety because of his range and instincts. His 2026 numbers are steady rather than loud: 28 tackles, an interception and three passes defended in seven games, plus the sack on Georgia's last defensive play of the 20-17 win over Alabama. A calf injury cost him the Auburn game. At 6-0 and 195, his strength in man coverage will get tested.
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31
Proj.12-5, loses the Super Bowl · likely range picks 22 to 32
Buffalo is the AFC's top seed at 12-5 and loses Super Bowl LXI to San Francisco on a 52-48 call. The Bills lead the league in scoring, and the defense is the half that needs help: safety play has been inconsistent under first-year coordinator Jim Leonhard.
Lopa was a little-used reserve for two seasons at Oregon, then picked off five passes in his first three games at Cal, including three and a pick-six in a win at Syracuse. He's 6-5 and 210 and moves well for that size, which earned him a Kyle Hamilton comparison from Renner. The interceptions stopped after September, though, and he missed a game with a concussion. With so few career snaps, Buffalo would be betting that one hot month is a fair sample.
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32
Proj.13-4, wins the Super Bowl · likely range picks 22 to 32
San Francisco has the best rating in the league and wins it all in 17 percent of simulations, the most of any team, so the Niners pick last. Left tackle Trent Williams is 38, but the board's tackles are gone by 32, and the pass rush is the more pressing fix.
Pierre looks the part, a 253-pound rusher who can stand up or put a hand in the dirt and closes fast. His 2025 breakout (14.5 tackles for loss, eight sacks) put him on early first-round lists. This fall the rush numbers have flattened, 3.5 sacks and four tackles for loss in eight games, though he's added a pick-six. Kyle Shanahan's staff would be betting the 2025 version is the real one.
How we got the order
Every one of the 151 games left on the schedule was played 20,000 times, followed by the playoffs and then the draft order the league would set from the result. Nothing was hand-placed. Where a team picks is wherever the simulations put it.
Each team carries one number: a rating in points against an average opponent on a neutral field. It is 85 percent ESPN's Football Power Index as of Tuesday morning and 15 percent this season's scoring margin, adjusted for schedule, with blowouts capped at 24 points and the whole thing pulled toward average because eight games is a small sample. The 85-15 split isn't a judgment call. It is the blend that comes closest to this week's betting lines, missing the 15 Week 9 spreads by an average of 1.85 points. FPI carries more of the weight because it adjusts for quarterback changes and injuries, and a pure scoring-margin rating can't.
Home field is worth 1.5 points, a single game swings with a standard deviation of 13.5 points, and each simulated season redraws every team's rating by a couple of points either way, because nobody knows exactly how good anyone is. Playoff seeding follows the league's format, unchanged for 2026: division winners take seeds 1 through 4 by record, the three best non-winners are 5 through 7, and the top survivor plays the lowest one in the divisional round. Tiebreakers are approximated with head-to-head, division and conference record, strength of victory and strength of schedule.
The draft order follows the league's rules too. The 18 non-playoff teams pick 1 through 18 by record, with ties going to the team with the weaker schedule. Playoff teams are slotted by the round they go out in and then by record, which is how an 8-9 division champion that wins a playoff game can pick behind a 10-7 wild card that doesn't.
One projected season comes out of the 20,000. Each team's record is its average simulated record, rounded. The division winner is the team that wins it most often, the wild cards are the three teams that qualify most often, and every playoff game goes to the team the ratings favor. That is the most likely path, not a forecast that the favorites win everything. The range under each pick shows where that pick lands in the middle 80 percent of simulations.
The players come from this site's midseason top 100, published this morning, and every stat in the write-ups is the board's line through Nov. 1. Picks follow need, but no pick reaches far past the board. Underclassmen who may go back to school are ranked on the board, so they're available here.
20,000 simulated seasons · ratings 85% ESPN FPI, 15% schedule-adjusted margin · 1.85 points from this week's lines on average.
Projected final standings
Records now and projected (the average of every simulated season, rounded), with each team's chance to win its division and to make the playoffs.
| Team | Now | Proj. | Div. | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC East | ||||
| Buffalo Bills | 6-1 | 12-5 | 78% | 98% |
| New England Patriots | 5-3 | 10-7 | 22% | 77% |
| New York Jets | 2-6 | 5-12 | <1% | 1% |
| Miami Dolphins | 1-6 | 4-13 | <1% | <1% |
| AFC North | ||||
| Cincinnati Bengals | 5-2 | 12-5 | 61% | 92% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 6-2 | 11-6 | 33% | 81% |
| Cleveland Browns | 5-3 | 9-8 | 5% | 28% |
| Baltimore Ravens | 4-4 | 7-10 | 1% | 9% |
| AFC South | ||||
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 5-2 | 12-5 | 91% | 96% |
| Houston Texans | 2-5 | 8-9 | 8% | 22% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 2-6 | 6-11 | 1% | 3% |
| Tennessee Titans | 1-7 | 4-13 | <1% | <1% |
| AFC West | ||||
| Denver Broncos | 6-2 | 11-6 | 52% | 89% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 5-2 | 11-6 | 44% | 86% |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 4-4 | 8-9 | 4% | 17% |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 0-7 | 4-13 | <1% | <1% |
| Team | Now | Proj. | Div. | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFC East | ||||
| New York Giants | 4-2-1 | 8-8-1 | 51% | 53% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 3-5 | 8-9 | 34% | 36% |
| Washington Commanders | 2-4-1 | 6-10-1 | 14% | 15% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 2-6 | 5-12 | 2% | 2% |
| NFC North | ||||
| Chicago Bears | 6-2 | 11-6 | 34% | 88% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 6-1 | 11-6 | 31% | 85% |
| Detroit Lions | 5-2 | 11-6 | 27% | 78% |
| Green Bay Packers | 5-3 | 10-7 | 8% | 55% |
| NFC South | ||||
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 3-5 | 8-9 | 55% | 56% |
| Carolina Panthers | 3-4 | 8-9 | 25% | 27% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 3-5 | 7-10 | 11% | 13% |
| New Orleans Saints | 2-5 | 6-11 | 10% | 11% |
| NFC West | ||||
| San Francisco 49ers | 6-1 | 13-4 | 89% | 97% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 4-4 | 9-8 | 7% | 44% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 4-4 | 9-8 | 4% | 38% |
| Arizona Cardinals | 3-5 | 6-11 | <1% | 3% |
The projected bracket
| Game | Pick | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| AFC wild card | ||
| (7) Patriots at (2) Jaguars | Jaguars | 62% |
| (6) Chiefs at (3) Bengals | Bengals | 56% |
| (5) Steelers at (4) Broncos | Broncos | 60% |
| AFC divisional round | ||
| (4) Broncos at (1) Bills | Bills | 62% |
| (3) Bengals at (2) Jaguars | Jaguars | 58% |
| AFC title game | ||
| (2) Jaguars at (1) Bills | Bills | 54% |
| NFC wild card | ||
| (7) Packers at (2) Bears | Bears | 63% |
| (6) Lions at (3) Giants | Lions | 63% |
| (5) Vikings at (4) Buccaneers | Buccaneers | 59% |
| NFC divisional round | ||
| (6) Lions at (1) 49ers | 49ers | 64% |
| (4) Buccaneers at (2) Bears | Bears | 61% |
| NFC title game | ||
| (2) Bears at (1) 49ers | 49ers | 57% |
| Super Bowl | ||
| Bills vs. 49ers | 49ers | 52% |
The pick is the team the ratings favor, home field included; the percentage is its chance in that one game.
Four calls in that bracket are worth flagging. Minnesota is 6-1 and finishes as a wild card that loses in Tampa, because FPI rates the Vikings' offense 4.3 points a game below average and the defense can't carry that forever. Tampa Bay (8-9) and the Giants (8-8-1) win weak divisions and host wild-card games against teams with better records. The NFC North is the tightest race in the league, with Chicago winning it in 34 percent of simulations, Minnesota in 31 and Detroit in 27. And Seattle, the defending champion, makes the field only 44 percent of the time and misses here.
The Super Bowl is as close as it gets: the ratings give San Francisco a 52 percent chance against Buffalo at SoFi Stadium on Feb. 14. Across all 20,000 seasons the Niners win it 17 percent of the time, the Bills 13 and the Jaguars 12.
First-round picks that have changed hands
- Jets hold three: their own, the Colts' (the 2025 Sauce Gardner trade) and the earlier of Dallas's two picks (the 2025 Quinnen Williams trade). In this projection that is Dallas's own at No. 12, which happens in 72 percent of simulations.
- Cowboys hold Green Bay's pick from the Micah Parsons trade and keep whichever of their two comes later. Here that's No. 20.
- Browns hold the Rams' pick, part of the package that sent Myles Garrett to Los Angeles with Jared Verse coming back to Cleveland.
- Titans hold the Bears' pick, plus Chicago's 2028 first, from last week's Jeffery Simmons trade.
- Raiders have their own pick and nothing more. The Maxx Crosby deal that would have sent Baltimore's 2026 and 2027 firsts to Las Vegas collapsed when the Ravens backed out, so both stayed in Baltimore.
- No first-round pick: Colts, Rams, Bears and Packers. The trade deadline is Nov. 10, so this list could still grow.
What would change this
Three dates will move this the most. Saturday's Miami-Notre Dame game puts three of the board's top 10 on one field: Darian Mensah, CJ Carr and Leonard Moore. The trade deadline is next Tuesday, Nov. 10, and a Maxx Crosby trade, or a dozen smaller deals, would change both the order and the needs. Then the January deadline for underclassmen decides who's actually in this draft. Four of the six quarterbacks taken here, Mestemaker, Carr, Simmons and Moore, can go back to school.
For the Raiders, the next game that moves the pick is Sunday in Santa Clara, where the ratings give them about a one-in-four chance. A win there opens up the wild-card race. A loss starts sliding the pick toward the top 10.
This mock is redone each time the big board is: Dec. 7, the day after the College Football Playoff field is set, with five weeks of the NFL regular season still to play; Jan. 26, after the national title game and the early-entry deadline, by which point the NFL's wild-card and divisional rounds are done and picks 1 through 28 are locked; March 9, after the Combine; and April 22, a week before the draft.
When it changes
- Midseason (this edition)Published November 3, 2026. NFL records through Week 8.
- Playoff field setNext: Monday, December 7, 2026. NFL records through Week 13, with five weeks left.
- After the title gameTuesday, January 26, 2027. NFL wild-card and divisional rounds done, so picks 1 through 28 are set.
- After the CombineTuesday, March 9, 2027. The order is final; only the picks change.
- Final mockThursday, April 22, 2027. The last mock before the draft.
Every edition
Sources for this edition: Raiders Daily: 2027 NFL Draft big board, the midseason top 100 · ESPN Football Power Index, NFL 2026 · ESPN NFL scoreboard and schedule, 2026 regular season, Weeks 1-18 · 2027 NFL draft: traded picks (Wikipedia) · SI: 2027 NFL draft team-by-team picks and trades already made · National Football Post: NFL playoff format and tiebreakers explained (2026) · NFL Operations: draft order procedures · FOX LA: Super Bowl LXI at SoFi Stadium, Feb. 14, 2027 · Raiders Daily: NFL power rankings, Week 8 · NBC Sports Philadelphia: Jalen Hurts likely out for season after blood clot diagnosis · AP via WSLS: Lamar Jackson hurts right thumb, will need surgery · FOX 9: Vikings sign Kyler Murray to a one-year contract · Titans.com: Titans trade Jeffery Simmons to the Bears for two first-round picks · WSAU/Field Level Media: Terry McLaurin out for the season · TSN: LaPorta not feeling contract love from Lions · PFT: Cameron Jordan says 2026 will be his last season · National Football Post: Steelers sign Aaron Rodgers to one-year deal · Victoria Advocate: Texans face defensive questions heading into bye · PFF: The 8 biggest team needs following the 2026 NFL Draft · NFL.com: 2027 NFL Draft order and biggest needs for every team.