The Draft · Mock draft, edition 2
2027 NFL mock draft, way too early: now with trades
Same projected season, same board, four draft-day deals. The Jets buy No. 1 from Tennessee, the Browns jump to 4, the Raiders move up for a defensive tackle, and seven quarterbacks go in the first round.
Same season, same board, same projected order. This time the phones ring. Four projected draft-day trades turn the first round into something closer to what April usually looks like, and the first one happens before anyone is on the clock: the Jets send No. 5, two Day 2 picks and a 2028 first to Tennessee for No. 1.
That sets off a quarterback run. Drew Mestemaker goes first, Miami takes Darian Mensah at 3, Cleveland trades both of its firsts to Philadelphia to take CJ Carr at 4, and Arizona answers with Trinidad Chambliss at 7. Indianapolis, without a first of its own, buys back into No. 32 for Arch Manning. That's seven quarterbacks in the first round, one more than the record set in 1983 and matched in 2024.
The Raiders make a move too. Xavier Gilliam, the board's best defensive tackle, is still there at 11 because the Jets spent No. 6 on a corner, and Las Vegas gives Atlanta a third-round pick to jump from 14 to 11 and take him one spot ahead of the Jets, who need a tackle just as badly.
Tennessee comes out of it with Colin Simmons at 5, a different Simmons from the one it traded to Chicago but the same hole filled, plus Jadan Baugh at 29 and three first-round picks in 2028. Every trade here is a projection, priced on the Jimmy Johnson trade chart, not a report. The no-trade version is still up as edition 1.
The first round at a glance
- 1JetsTDrew Mestemaker QB, Oklahoma State
- 2ChargersJeremiah Smith WR, Ohio State
- 3DolphinsDarian Mensah QB, Miami
- 4BrownsTCJ Carr QB, Notre Dame
- 5TitansTColin Simmons EDGE, Texas
- 6JetsLeonard Moore CB, Notre Dame
- 7CardinalsTrinidad Chambliss QB, Ole Miss
- 8SaintsDylan Stewart EDGE, South Carolina
- 9CommandersCharlie Becker WR, Indiana
- 10RavensJordan Seaton OT, LSU
- 11RaidersTXavier Gilliam DL, Tennessee
- 12JetsWill Echoles DL, Ole Miss
- 13TexansTrevor Lauck OT, Iowa
- 14FalconsTGreg Johnson IOL, Minnesota
- 15PanthersAshton Hampton CB, Clemson
- 16EaglesTKelley Jones CB, Mississippi State
- 17SeahawksChris Cole LB, Georgia
- 18EaglesTKade Pieper IOL, Iowa
- 19GiantsDevan Thompkins EDGE, Alabama
- 20CowboysEllis Robinson IV CB, Georgia
- 21PatriotsKJ Duff WR, Rutgers
- 22ChiefsLance Heard OT, Kentucky
- 23SteelersAustin Simmons QB, Missouri
- 24VikingsDante Moore QB, Oregon
- 25BuccaneersWill Heldt EDGE, Clemson
- 26LionsTrey'Dez Green TE, LSU
- 27BroncosJamari Johnson TE, Oregon
- 28BengalsCarter Smith OT, Indiana
- 29TitansJadan Baugh RB, Florida
- 30JaguarsKJ Bolden S, Georgia
- 31BillsKingston Lopa S, California
- 32ColtsTArch Manning QB, Texas
T marks a pick moved in a projected draft-day trade.
The draft-day trades
Projected trades, not reported ones. Values are from the Jimmy Johnson trade chart.
Trade 1The Jets go get their quarterback
- New York Jets get No. 1
- Tennessee Titans get No. 5, No. 37, No. 69, the Jets' 2028 first-round pick
Chart math: No. 1 is worth 3,000 points. Nos. 5, 37 and 69 add up to 2,475 (1,700, 530 and 245), and the 2028 first covers the rest.
The Jets are the only team with the ammunition to make this easy: three first-round picks, all in the top 12. Giving up No. 5 still leaves them two picks in the top 12, at 6 and 12, and it gets them the quarterback they want instead of hoping Miami passes on one at 3.
For Tennessee the case is simple. Cam Ward is 24 and the staff is still giving him time, so a quarterback at No. 1 would be a second bet on the same position two years after the first. The Titans drop four spots, still get the best edge rusher on the board, and leave with an extra second, an extra third and the Jets' 2028 first, which gives them three first-rounders that year with Chicago's from the Jeffery Simmons trade.
The precedent is the Rams in 2016, who sent No. 15, two seconds, a third and the next year's first and third to Tennessee for No. 1 and two late-round picks. Starting from No. 5, the Jets pay less in volume and more in quality.
Trade 2Cleveland jumps Arizona
- Cleveland Browns get No. 4
- Philadelphia Eagles get No. 16, No. 18
Chart math: No. 4 is worth 1,800 points. Nos. 16 and 18 are 1,900 together (1,000 and 900).
The Browns hold two firsts and need a quarterback who can play in September, with Deshaun Watson's contract voiding in March. In edition 1 they waited until 16. With quarterbacks going at 1 and 3, waiting means Arizona at 7 gets the next one, so Cleveland packages both of its picks to get in front.
Philadelphia can afford to move down. Jalen Hurts is expected back, the Eagles aren't drafting a quarterback, and the roster has more holes than one pick at 4 can fill: tackle after Lane Johnson's retirement, the interior line after the Cam Jurgens trade, and a corner to pair with Quinyon Mitchell. Two picks in the teens become two starters.
Trade 3The Raiders jump the Jets
- Las Vegas Raiders get No. 11
- Atlanta Falcons get No. 14, No. 78
Chart math: No. 11 is worth 1,250 points. Nos. 14 and 78 are 1,300 together (1,100 and 200).
Xavier Gilliam is the best defensive tackle on the board, and in this version of the draft he's still there at 11 because the Jets used No. 6 on Leonard Moore. The Jets pick again at 12 and need a tackle as much as anyone, so waiting at 14 means the Raiders take whoever is left. A third-round pick moves them in front.
Atlanta's new front office started with only five picks last spring, and dropping three spots still lands the Falcons a starting interior lineman at 14 while adding a third. Opinion, clearly labeled: this site argued in September that John Spytek's drafts say keep the picks. One third-rounder for the top tackle on the board is the exception worth making.
Trade 4The Colts buy a fifth-year option
- Indianapolis Colts get No. 32
- San Francisco 49ers get No. 38, No. 102
Chart math: No. 32 is worth 590 points. Nos. 38 and 102 are 612 together (520 and 92).
Indianapolis sent its 2027 first to the Jets in the Sauce Gardner trade, and quarterback has been the problem since. Arch Manning is still on the board at 32 after six quarterbacks have gone, and a team that wants him has a reason to want him in the first round: first-round picks come with a fifth-year option, and second-rounders don't.
Baltimore did the same thing for Lamar Jackson in 2018, trading back into No. 32 with Philadelphia. San Francisco gives up nothing it needs. The Niners still pick at 38, where a pass rusher like Yhonzae Pierre could be waiting, and they add a fourth.
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1
TradeJets move up from No. 5. Titans get Nos. 5, 37 and 69 and a 2028 first. · The deal
Proj.Titans 4-13, misses the playoffs · likely range picks 1 to 6
The Jets paid to pick first, and this is why. Geno Smith is 36, his 8.0 yards a throw make him a bridge rather than an answer, and Aaron Glenn's seat is hot enough that a new coach could be making the call. Staying at 5 meant hoping Miami passed on a quarterback at 3.
Mestemaker is the board's top quarterback. He's a former walk-on who led the FBS in passing yards at North Texas last year, and in the Big 12 he's second nationally with 2,649 yards and 25 touchdowns, with an FBS-high 41 completions of 20-plus yards by Kiper's count. The seven interceptions come from trusting his arm in tight windows, the release is unorthodox, and 23 career starts is a thin file for a No. 1 pick. As a redshirt sophomore he could also go back to school, which is the risk in trading up for him in November.
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2
Proj.4-13, misses the playoffs · likely range picks 1 to 9
Edition 1 had Tennessee taking Smith first. With the Jets taking a quarterback instead, the best player in the class reaches No. 2, and the Chargers don't have to think long. Justin Herbert has five touchdown passes against 10 interceptions, the team's 99 points are the fewest in the league, and Herbert is signed through 2029. The fastest fix for a quarterback that expensive is a receiver this good.
Smith is 6-4 and 222 with 62 catches for 1,067 yards and 13 touchdowns in eight games, including back-to-back 200-yard games against Illinois and Iowa, and Kiper counts six drops on 289 career targets. Khalil Mack, 35 and on a one-year deal, makes edge rusher a real need, but the Chargers can look for a rusher at 34. There isn't another Smith.
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3
Proj.4-13, misses the playoffs · likely range picks 1 to 8
Miami is in year zero: a new general manager in Jon-Eric Sullivan, a new coach in Jeff Hafley, Tua Tagovailoa released and Malik Willis signed to bridge the gap. Willis hasn't closed the question, and the Dolphins' 117 points are the second-fewest in the league. With Mestemaker gone at 1, the pick is the next quarterback on the board.
Mensah is completing 80.7 percent of his passes, with 25 touchdowns and one interception for an unbeaten Miami. He's a touch passer who works through progressions and stands in against the blitz. The limits are physical: average velocity when he has to drive a ball into a tight window, and a 205-pound frame. He wouldn't even have to change stadiums. The Hurricanes and the Dolphins both play at Hard Rock Stadium.
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4
TradeBrowns move up from Nos. 16 and 18. Eagles get both. · The deal
Proj.Eagles 5-12, misses the playoffs · likely range picks 2 to 11
Cleveland's two firsts become one, and the one is a quarterback. Deshaun Watson has been sacked 22 times in four games and has a contract that voids in March, and the Browns are 5-3 with a defense built around Jared Verse. In edition 1 they waited until 16 and got Trinidad Chambliss. Here, with two quarterbacks gone by No. 3, waiting is too risky.
Carr's game is processing. He reads coverage quickly, throws with touch and timing, and has one interception in 222 attempts for a 7-1 Notre Dame. The arm is good, not great, and that caps his ceiling for some evaluators. He's a redshirt sophomore who could return to school, and on Saturday he plays Mensah.
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5
TradeTitans move down from No. 1 and add Nos. 37 and 69 and a 2028 first. · The deal
Proj.Jets 5-12, misses the playoffs · likely range picks 2 to 12
Tennessee traded Jeffery Simmons to Chicago last week. Four picks after trading out of No. 1, it gets a Simmons back. The defensive front was the need with its best player gone, and the most productive pass rusher in the class is still on the board.
Through six games Simmons led the FBS in sacks (10.5) and tackles for loss (16), including five sacks at Tennessee, the school, not the team. The flags are his 246 pounds and the high ankle sprain from the Florida game. And the Titans still have Nos. 37 and 69 on Day 2, plus Baugh at 29.
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6
Proj.Colts 6-11, misses the playoffs · likely range picks 3 to 14
The Jets already have their quarterback, so the Colts' pick goes to the other position the Sauce Gardner trade emptied. Leonard Moore is the No. 2 player on the board and the top corner on Kiper's, Renner's and PFF's boards, and he's here at 6 because three quarterbacks went in the top four.
Moore is 6-2 and 197 with seven interceptions and 23 breakups over three seasons, and quarterbacks have mostly stopped throwing at him; Renner had him allowing about half a yard per coverage snap through mid-October. The nitpicks are a concussion that cost him the Stanford game and a 15.4 percent missed-tackle rate last season. The class's best corner, with a pick that came from trading a corner, is tidy business.
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7
Proj.6-11, misses the playoffs · likely range picks 4 to 15
Arizona released Kyler Murray in March, and its quarterbacks now are Jacoby Brissett, whose deal ends after this season, Gardner Minshew and third-round rookie Carson Beck. In edition 1, CJ Carr was there at 7. Here Cleveland took him at 4, the next quarterback on the board is Chambliss at No. 13, and the one after him is at 28.
Chambliss is a creator who sees the field, gets the ball out with a compact release and has seven rushing touchdowns, and he's at his best in big games, including the win over LSU. The 2026 numbers are a step down: eight interceptions after three all last season, and 63.9 percent completions. He's 6-0 and 210, in a court-granted sixth year, and turns 25 next August, so he's the readiest quarterback in the class and the one with the least time to grow. Six spots ahead of his board rank is the price of the position.
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8
Proj.6-11, misses the playoffs · likely range picks 3 to 19
Cam Jordan has said 2026 is his last season, and New Orleans needs the next one. The Saints also lost Bryan Bresee to a knee injury in camp, and the run defense has suffered for it. Stewart is the right answer to the bigger long-term problem.
He has the best physical tools among this year's edge rushers: long, explosive and loose enough to bend under tackles. The 2026 sample is small, because a back injury cost him two games and a punch against Alabama cost him another. The Florida game showed the ceiling, with a sack and two forced fumbles on 29 snaps. He has nine career forced fumbles but only 13 sacks in three seasons, and teams will dig into the back and the Alabama incident before spending a top-10 pick. Falling three spots past his board rank is the discount for that homework.
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9
Proj.6-10-1, misses the playoffs · likely range picks 4 to 20
Terry McLaurin tore his patellar tendon on Oct. 19 and is out for the season at 31, and Stefon Diggs, Treylon Burks and Dyami Brown are all headed for free agency. Jayden Daniels needs someone to throw to in 2027.
Becker is a 6-4, 208-pound vertical receiver who tracks the ball and attacks it at the catch point: 50 catches for 875 yards and nine touchdowns at 17.5 a catch. His best game came against the best defense he's seen, nine catches for 165 yards against Ohio State. Renner had him without a drop in 65 career opportunities as of mid-October. The remaining question is long speed, and Kiper expects a fast 40.
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10
Proj.7-10, misses the playoffs · likely range picks 6 to 18
Baltimore projects to 7-10 because of one snap. Lamar Jackson hurt his throwing thumb on the first play in Buffalo, and Jesse Minter says he'll need surgery and go on injured reserve, possibly for the rest of the year. That's why the Ravens are picking this high, and it's also why the pick isn't a quarterback: Jackson is 29 and signed through 2027.
The line is the long-term need. Ronnie Stanley is 32 with a non-guaranteed salary next year. Seaton has 30 career starts, all at left tackle, and has allowed no sacks and three pressures in eight LSU starts, per Kiper. His athleticism drives the grade. The concerns are play strength against power and a 52.0 PFF run-blocking grade last year, plus a knee injury that ended his 2025 early.
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11
TradeRaiders move up from No. 14. Falcons get No. 14 and No. 78. · The deal
Proj.Falcons 7-10, misses the playoffs · likely range picks 5 to 19
The Raiders spend a third-round pick to move up three spots, and they get the best defensive tackle on the board for it. Las Vegas projects to 8-9 and out of the playoffs, which put its own pick at 14. The schedule is why the record isn't better: five of the last nine are on the road, starting Sunday in San Francisco. The Raiders make the playoffs in 17 percent of simulations, and their own pick lands between 7 and 21 in the middle 80 percent.
The need hasn't changed since April. The 2026 draft brought 10 players and no defensive tackle until Brandon Cleveland in the seventh round, a gap PFF flagged right after the draft. Jonah Laulu was waived last week, and on Sunday the Jets ran for 147 yards through Braelon Allen in a game the Raiders won by five. A 3-4 defense lives on the men over the center and guards, and this one hasn't had them.
Gilliam is the biggest riser in the class. He was a Penn State backup in 2025, followed coordinator Jim Knowles to Tennessee, and has 11.5 tackles for loss, six sacks and two forced fumbles in eight games, with sacks against Texas, Arkansas and South Carolina. He's a 6-2, 305-pounder who wins with first-step quickness, mostly from the nose. The question is whether a one-year starter his size holds up against the run, and in a 3-4 that's the job.
Also considered: staying at 14 and taking Will Echoles, which is what happened in edition 1, and Minnesota guard-center Greg Johnson. Opinion, clearly labeled: the quarterback is in the building, and the next three drafts are about the lines. A third is a fair price to start with the best one.
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12
Proj.Cowboys 8-9, misses the playoffs · likely range picks 6 to 26
The Jets' third first-rounder is the pick from the Quinnen Williams trade, and the Raiders' jump to 11 took the tackle they'd have wanted. Echoles is the consolation, and it isn't much of one: many evaluators still have him as the top interior lineman in the class. New York gets the earlier of Dallas's two firsts, which is Dallas's own in 72 percent of simulations.
Echoles was first-team All-SEC in 2025 with 11.5 tackles for loss and five sacks, and PFF had him leading Power Four interior linemen with 39 pressures and 35 stops. He's a 6-3, 315-pound junior who's excellent against the run and can beat double teams. The sacks haven't come this fall, 1.5 in eight games. Add it up and the Jets leave the first round with a quarterback, a corner and a defensive tackle, the three things they needed most.
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13
Proj.8-9, misses the playoffs · likely range picks 6 to 23
Houston is 2-5, but the ratings like the Texans more than the record, and they project to 8-9. Tackle is the first need, with Tytus Howard traded and Braden Smith on a two-year deal, and in this version of the draft the best tackle left is still on the board at 13.
Lauck has climbed to the top of Kiper's tackle rankings. He's started all of Iowa's games at left tackle and allowed no sacks and four pressures by Kiper's count, and Iowa's line has given up the fewest sacks in the Big Ten. He wins with footwork, balance and hands rather than power, which is why some evaluators see a guard. Going two spots ahead of his board rank is the price of the position.
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14
TradeFalcons move down from No. 11 and add No. 78. · The deal
Proj.Raiders 8-9, misses the playoffs · likely range picks 7 to 21
Atlanta drops three spots, adds a third-round pick and still gets a starter. The new front office of Kevin Stefanski, Ian Cunningham and Matt Ryan had only five picks last spring, center Ryan Neuzil is headed for free agency and Matthew Bergeron is in a contract year.
Johnson is the most versatile interior lineman in the class and, nine weeks in, the most consistent. He opened at left guard, slid to center when Minnesota lost both of its centers, and PFF has him fourth of 299 centers with an 80.1 grade, no sacks and two pressures allowed on 284 pass-block snaps. He's a 6-6, 325-pound four-year starter with snaps at every line spot. Tackle is still a need with Jake Matthews at 34, and the Falcons now have an extra third to chase one.
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15
Proj.8-9, misses the playoffs · likely range picks 6 to 25
Carolina's line problem is real. Taylor Moton is out for the season, Ikem Ekwonu is coming back from a ruptured patellar tendon, and Bryce Young was sacked six times in Green Bay. But the Panthers spent April's first-round pick on tackle Monroe Freeling, and the board's top tackles are gone. The secondary is the other hole, and the board's No. 12 player is still here at 15.
Hampton is a 6-2, 205-pound true junior who played safety and receiver in high school. He has one interception and nine passes defended in eight games, and opponents average 2.3 yards per throw his way, seventh in the nation per Kiper. He moves fluidly for his size and tackles. The question is ball production: four interceptions in three seasons.
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16
TradeEagles move down from No. 4 and get Nos. 16 and 18. · The deal
Proj.Browns 9-8, misses the playoffs · likely range picks 9 to 23
This is the first half of the price Cleveland paid for No. 4. Philadelphia at 5-12 is the most surprising team near the top of the order, and the reason is medical: Jalen Hurts has a deep-vein clot and clots in both lungs, is likely out for the season, and the team expects a full recovery. The Eagles use the two picks on two holes that aren't quarterback.
Corner comes first. Riq Woolen's one-year deal leaves Quinyon Mitchell without a long-term partner, and Jones is a 6-4 corner with long arms who's at his best in press. He has 18 pass breakups since the start of 2025 and 27 tackles in eight games this fall. The concern is fit: Mississippi State plays him off far more often, and Renner sees athletic limits there.
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17
Proj.9-8, misses the playoffs · likely range picks 13 to 29
The defending champions miss the playoffs in this projection: Seattle gets in 44 percent of the time, and 9-8 falls a game short. Boye Mafe left for Cincinnati, and the board's No. 11 player is here at 17 because the quarterback run pushed everyone down.
Cole is a 6-3, 235-pound junior who Georgia uses inside, on the edge and in coverage, and he's produced everywhere: 49 tackles, 3.5 sacks and three fumble recoveries, one returned 85 yards for a touchdown against Oklahoma, plus 8.5 tackles for loss and 16 pressures through seven games by Kiper's count. Where he lives in the NFL is the question, and a defense that moves people around has more answers to it than most.
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18
TradeEagles get this pick from Cleveland in the No. 4 trade. · The deal
Proj.Rams 9-8, misses the playoffs · likely range picks 11 to 28
The second half of the No. 4 trade is the pick Cleveland got from the Rams for Myles Garrett, now on its third team. Philadelphia traded center Cam Jurgens to Baltimore in October and is starting Drew Kendall, a 2025 fifth-round pick, in his place.
Pieper was pegged as Iowa's next center, but after a spring and camp look there he's stayed at right guard and kept stacking clean reps. PFF credits him with two pressures and no sacks allowed on 241 pass-block snaps and a 90.0 pass-blocking grade. He's a refined zone blocker at 6-3 and 298, and he can learn center behind a veteran. Tackle, after Lane Johnson's retirement, waits until Day 2.
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19
Proj.8-8-1, loses in the wild-card round · likely range picks 9 to 26
The Giants win the NFC East at 8-8-1. They take it in 51 percent of simulations, and the ratings still rate them below average, so they lose at home to Detroit in the wild-card round. That puts them first among the playoff teams.
New York traded Dexter Lawrence to Cincinnati in April, and the middle of the defense needs a big body who can push the pocket. Thompkins is a 300-pounder who can rush from the edge or inside, which is why some boards list him as an end and others as a tackle. His 2026 production is steady rather than loud, with 31 tackles and three sacks in eight games, and evaluators see a better rusher than run defender. Renner ranks him 15th overall.
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20
Proj.Packers 10-7, loses in the wild-card round · likely range picks 14 to 29
This is Green Bay's pick, from the Micah Parsons trade. The Packers make the playoffs at 10-7 as a wild card and lose in Chicago. Dallas keeps it because its own pick lands earlier and goes to the Jets.
The Cowboys' run defense is the bigger problem, but the board's best interior linemen are gone, and corner is still a need even after the trade for Joey Porter Jr. Robinson was a five-star recruit at IMG Academy who became a ballhawk fast: four interceptions and second-team All-SEC in 2025, plus two more picks this fall. Renner had him allowing four first downs on 19 targets through mid-October. Size is the obvious question at 6-0 and 180. He's also a redshirt sophomore who may not declare.
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21
Proj.10-7, loses in the wild-card round · likely range picks 16 to 30
New England is a projected 10-7 wild card that loses in Jacksonville. The Patriots gave up a 2028 first for A.J. Brown in June, and Brown, 29, has already missed five games with ankle and knee problems. Drake Maye needs a receiver he can count on for more than one year.
Duff is 6-6 and 225 and wins above defenders; he led the FBS in contested catches last season. Renner adds that he can win vertically, not just as a big possession target. He has 774 yards and nine touchdowns on a 2-6 Rutgers team, with four 100-yard games. The recent trend is the worry: three catches at Northwestern, then none against Michigan. Scouts will want to know why.
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22
Proj.11-6, loses in the wild-card round · likely range picks 17 to 31
Kansas City is an 11-6 wild card that loses in Cincinnati. The pick is about Patrick Mahomes's blind side. Left tackle Josh Simmons is out for the season with a back injury, right tackle Jaylon Moore has been in the concussion protocol, and the replacements have struggled in pass protection.
Heard is on his third SEC stop after LSU and Tennessee, and this is his cleanest season. He hadn't allowed a sack or a quarterback hit through mid-October, per Renner, and ESPN Analytics has his pressure rate under 2.5 percent. At 6-6 and 325 he's a physical run blocker who's at his best in short yardage. The questions are discipline, after 14 penalties in 2025, and position, since some scouts still project him to guard.
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23
Proj.11-6, loses in the wild-card round · likely range picks 17 to 30
Pittsburgh is 6-2 with a quarterback who turns 43 in December. Aaron Rodgers is on a one-year deal, so the Steelers project as an 11-6 wild card that loses in Denver and then starts looking for his successor.
Simmons has one of the liveliest arms in the class. Jordan Reid ties the whippy left-handed delivery to his pitching background, and he can take something off for touch too. He's thrown 16 touchdowns against two interceptions for a 6-2 Missouri. The rest of the game is still developing: he can be late with reads under pressure, his ball placement comes and goes, and the sample is small. He doesn't turn 21 until Sunday and has a year of eligibility left, so 2028 is a real possibility. Mike McCarthy has developed raw arms before.
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24
Proj.11-6, loses in the wild-card round · likely range picks 18 to 30
Minnesota is 6-1 and has allowed 93 points, the fewest in the league by 18. The projection still has the Vikings finishing 11-6 and losing a wild-card game in Tampa, because FPI rates their offense 4.3 points a game below average. Kyler Murray signed a one-year deal with a no-tag clause, so they can't franchise him in March.
Moore was considered a top prospect for the 2026 draft before returning to Oregon, and his 2025 season (71.8 percent, 30 touchdowns, 13-2 as a starter) still drives his grade. His 2026 lasted four games, 926 yards and nine touchdowns with no interceptions, before a concussion at USC on Sept. 26. Dan Lanning has said he's unlikely to play again this season. Handling pressure is the main question, and he has eligibility left. Kevin O'Connell is the right coach to bet on that.
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25
Proj.8-9, loses in the divisional round · likely range picks 8 to 29
Tampa Bay wins the NFC South at 8-9, beats Minnesota at home and loses in Chicago. In edition 1 the Buccaneers took a receiver here. With Heldt still on the board, they take the bigger need: Rueben Bain Jr., the No. 15 pick in April, has been slow to start, and the pass rush has been the weak spot.
Heldt is a long, relentless rusher at 6-6 and 260 who has improved every year since leaving Purdue. He's at his best getting to a tackle's outside shoulder and finishing through contact, and his closing speed is unusual for his size. Clemson's film review credits him with seven sacks and 11 tackles for loss in eight games, including three two-sack games, though official counts run lower. Nick Marsh, the receiver edition 1 took here, falls out of the first round.
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26
Proj.11-6, loses in the divisional round · likely range picks 16 to 31
Detroit is an 11-6 wild card that wins at the Giants and loses in San Francisco. Sam LaPorta is in the last year of his rookie deal, extension talks ended in early October, and he's said publicly that the team isn't showing him the love.
Green is a 6-7 receiving tight end who wins as a mismatch, and he set LSU's tight end record with seven touchdown catches in 2025. He had 14 catches for 222 yards in under three games this fall before a right knee sprain at Ole Miss cost him four games, and he came back at Auburn with five catches and a score. The concerns are drops (PFF counted five last season) and whether his frame holds up as an in-line blocker.
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27
Proj.11-6, loses in the divisional round · likely range picks 18 to 31
Denver wins the AFC West at 11-6 in a near coin flip with Kansas City, 52 percent to 44, then beats Pittsburgh and loses in Buffalo. Tackle is a long-term need with Garett Bolles at 34, but the tackles left in this range project inside for some boards. Tight end is the other gap: Evan Engram's deal voids after this season.
Johnson is a 6-5, 257-pound tight end who can line up in-line, in the slot or at H-back, and PFF graded him ahead of first-rounder Kenyon Sadiq in 2025, when he averaged 15.9 yards a catch as Oregon's No. 2. As the lead tight end this fall he has 26 catches for 328 yards and three touchdowns in six games, including 119 yards at USC. Scouts will want to know whether he's a true TE1 receiver or a high-end blocker who catches.
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28
Proj.12-5, loses in the divisional round · likely range picks 19 to 31
Cincinnati wins the AFC North at 12-5, beats Kansas City and loses in Jacksonville. Joe Burrow just threw for 426 yards and five touchdowns against Tennessee and still got sacked three times. Center Ted Karras and right guard Dalton Risner are both headed for free agency, and Kade Pieper, edition 1's pick here, went to Philadelphia at 18.
Smith brought 41 straight starts at left tackle into 2026, along with a 2025 consensus All-America season in which PFF had him allowing single-digit pressures over 16 games. The debate is size: he's listed around 6-4 and 307 with a short-arms label, so Renner ranks him at guard and others see a center. For a team that needs a guard and a center, that's a feature. It's also eight spots ahead of his board rank.
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29
Proj.Bears 11-6, loses in the conference title game · likely range picks 18 to 31
This is Chicago's pick, from the Jeffery Simmons trade. The Bears win the NFC North at 11-6 in the closest race in the league, then beat Green Bay and Tampa Bay and lose the NFC title game in San Francisco. With the No. 1 trade, the Titans leave the first round with Colin Simmons and Baugh, and Nos. 37 and 69 still to come.
Defensive tackle is Tennessee's need with Simmons gone, but the board's best interior linemen went at 11 and 12. Tony Pollard is 29 and in a contract year, and the board's No. 18 player at 29 is value. Baugh is a 225-pound runner with unusual lateral quickness, and he has 13 rushing touchdowns in eight games. September was loud: 600 yards and 11 scores in four games. Then Missouri, South Carolina and Georgia held him to 110 yards on 44 carries combined, and he has just nine catches. Scouts will ask what he does when the blocking doesn't.
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30
Proj.12-5, loses in the conference title game · likely range picks 21 to 32
Jacksonville has the best point differential in the league at plus 85. The Jaguars win the AFC South at 12-5, beat New England and Cincinnati, and lose the AFC title game in Buffalo, a game the ratings call 54-46. The weak spot has been the deep middle.
Bolden has been a Georgia regular since 2024, when he made the SEC All-Freshman team, and he projects as a center-field free safety because of his range and instincts. His 2026 numbers are steady rather than loud: 28 tackles, an interception and three passes defended in seven games, plus the sack on Georgia's last defensive play of the 20-17 win over Alabama. A calf injury cost him the Auburn game. At 6-0 and 195, his strength in man coverage will get tested.
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31
Proj.12-5, loses the Super Bowl · likely range picks 22 to 32
Buffalo is the AFC's top seed at 12-5 and loses Super Bowl LXI to San Francisco on a 52-48 call. The Bills lead the league in scoring, and the defense is the half that needs help: safety play has been inconsistent under first-year coordinator Jim Leonhard.
Lopa was a little-used reserve for two seasons at Oregon, then picked off five passes in his first three games at Cal, including three and a pick-six in a win at Syracuse. He's 6-5 and 210 and moves well for that size, which earned him a Kyle Hamilton comparison from Renner. The interceptions stopped after September, though, and he missed a game with a concussion. With so few career snaps, Buffalo would be betting that one hot month is a fair sample.
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32
TradeColts trade back into the first. 49ers get Nos. 38 and 102. · The deal
Proj.49ers 13-4, wins the Super Bowl · likely range picks 22 to 32
Indianapolis's own first went to the Jets in the Sauce Gardner trade, and quarterback is the reason to get back in. Daniel Jones has five touchdown passes and nine interceptions at 5.8 yards a throw, and he's been benched for Anthony Richardson. Taking Manning at 32 instead of 38 gives the Colts a fifth-year option on him, which a second-round pick wouldn't.
Manning has everything teams look for physically: 6-4, 222 pounds, a strong arm and real mobility. The problem is consistency. He's at 64.8 percent with 15 touchdowns and seven interceptions, and Reid's charting had him off target on 9.8 percent of throws in early October. He makes throws worthy of a top-10 pick and then gives one away. This board ranks six quarterbacks ahead of him, and he goes seventh at his position, which is about right. He's a redshirt junior and could go back to Texas.
How we got the order
Every one of the 151 games left on the schedule was played 20,000 times, followed by the playoffs and then the draft order the league would set from the result. Nothing was hand-placed. Where a team picks is wherever the simulations put it.
Each team carries one number: a rating in points against an average opponent on a neutral field. It is 85 percent ESPN's Football Power Index as of Tuesday morning and 15 percent this season's scoring margin, adjusted for schedule, with blowouts capped at 24 points and the whole thing pulled toward average because eight games is a small sample. The 85-15 split isn't a judgment call. It is the blend that comes closest to this week's betting lines, missing the 15 Week 9 spreads by an average of 1.85 points. FPI carries more of the weight because it adjusts for quarterback changes and injuries, and a pure scoring-margin rating can't.
Home field is worth 1.5 points, a single game swings with a standard deviation of 13.5 points, and each simulated season redraws every team's rating by a couple of points either way, because nobody knows exactly how good anyone is. Playoff seeding follows the league's format, unchanged for 2026: division winners take seeds 1 through 4 by record, the three best non-winners are 5 through 7, and the top survivor plays the lowest one in the divisional round. Tiebreakers are approximated with head-to-head, division and conference record, strength of victory and strength of schedule.
The draft order follows the league's rules too. The 18 non-playoff teams pick 1 through 18 by record, with ties going to the team with the weaker schedule. Playoff teams are slotted by the round they go out in and then by record, which is how an 8-9 division champion that wins a playoff game can pick behind a 10-7 wild card that doesn't.
One projected season comes out of the 20,000. Each team's record is its average simulated record, rounded. The division winner is the team that wins it most often, the wild cards are the three teams that qualify most often, and every playoff game goes to the team the ratings favor. That is the most likely path, not a forecast that the favorites win everything. The range under each pick shows where that pick lands in the middle 80 percent of simulations.
The players come from this site's midseason top 100, published this morning, and every stat in the write-ups is the board's line through Nov. 1. Picks follow need, but no pick reaches far past the board. Underclassmen who may go back to school are ranked on the board, so they're available here.
The trades are this edition's addition, and they're judgment, not simulation. Each one has a reason on both sides, a price on the Jimmy Johnson chart within about 10 percent (more for the team buying a quarterback, as usual) and a precedent from a real draft. The order and the projected records underneath them are unchanged from edition 1.
20,000 simulated seasons · ratings 85% ESPN FPI, 15% schedule-adjusted margin · 1.85 points from this week's lines on average.
Projected final standings
Records now and projected (the average of every simulated season, rounded), with each team's chance to win its division and to make the playoffs.
| Team | Now | Proj. | Div. | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC East | ||||
| Buffalo Bills | 6-1 | 12-5 | 78% | 98% |
| New England Patriots | 5-3 | 10-7 | 22% | 77% |
| New York Jets | 2-6 | 5-12 | <1% | 1% |
| Miami Dolphins | 1-6 | 4-13 | <1% | <1% |
| AFC North | ||||
| Cincinnati Bengals | 5-2 | 12-5 | 61% | 92% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 6-2 | 11-6 | 33% | 81% |
| Cleveland Browns | 5-3 | 9-8 | 5% | 28% |
| Baltimore Ravens | 4-4 | 7-10 | 1% | 9% |
| AFC South | ||||
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 5-2 | 12-5 | 91% | 96% |
| Houston Texans | 2-5 | 8-9 | 8% | 22% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 2-6 | 6-11 | 1% | 3% |
| Tennessee Titans | 1-7 | 4-13 | <1% | <1% |
| AFC West | ||||
| Denver Broncos | 6-2 | 11-6 | 52% | 89% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 5-2 | 11-6 | 44% | 86% |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 4-4 | 8-9 | 4% | 17% |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 0-7 | 4-13 | <1% | <1% |
| Team | Now | Proj. | Div. | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFC East | ||||
| New York Giants | 4-2-1 | 8-8-1 | 51% | 53% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 3-5 | 8-9 | 34% | 36% |
| Washington Commanders | 2-4-1 | 6-10-1 | 14% | 15% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 2-6 | 5-12 | 2% | 2% |
| NFC North | ||||
| Chicago Bears | 6-2 | 11-6 | 34% | 88% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 6-1 | 11-6 | 31% | 85% |
| Detroit Lions | 5-2 | 11-6 | 27% | 78% |
| Green Bay Packers | 5-3 | 10-7 | 8% | 55% |
| NFC South | ||||
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 3-5 | 8-9 | 55% | 56% |
| Carolina Panthers | 3-4 | 8-9 | 25% | 27% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 3-5 | 7-10 | 11% | 13% |
| New Orleans Saints | 2-5 | 6-11 | 10% | 11% |
| NFC West | ||||
| San Francisco 49ers | 6-1 | 13-4 | 89% | 97% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 4-4 | 9-8 | 7% | 44% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 4-4 | 9-8 | 4% | 38% |
| Arizona Cardinals | 3-5 | 6-11 | <1% | 3% |
The projected bracket
| Game | Pick | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| AFC wild card | ||
| (7) Patriots at (2) Jaguars | Jaguars | 62% |
| (6) Chiefs at (3) Bengals | Bengals | 56% |
| (5) Steelers at (4) Broncos | Broncos | 60% |
| AFC divisional round | ||
| (4) Broncos at (1) Bills | Bills | 62% |
| (3) Bengals at (2) Jaguars | Jaguars | 58% |
| AFC title game | ||
| (2) Jaguars at (1) Bills | Bills | 54% |
| NFC wild card | ||
| (7) Packers at (2) Bears | Bears | 63% |
| (6) Lions at (3) Giants | Lions | 63% |
| (5) Vikings at (4) Buccaneers | Buccaneers | 59% |
| NFC divisional round | ||
| (6) Lions at (1) 49ers | 49ers | 64% |
| (4) Buccaneers at (2) Bears | Bears | 61% |
| NFC title game | ||
| (2) Bears at (1) 49ers | 49ers | 57% |
| Super Bowl | ||
| Bills vs. 49ers | 49ers | 52% |
The pick is the team the ratings favor, home field included; the percentage is its chance in that one game.
Four calls in that bracket are worth flagging. Minnesota is 6-1 and finishes as a wild card that loses in Tampa, because FPI rates the Vikings' offense 4.3 points a game below average and the defense can't carry that forever. Tampa Bay (8-9) and the Giants (8-8-1) win weak divisions and host wild-card games against teams with better records. The NFC North is the tightest race in the league, with Chicago winning it in 34 percent of simulations, Minnesota in 31 and Detroit in 27. And Seattle, the defending champion, makes the field only 44 percent of the time and misses here.
The Super Bowl is as close as it gets: the ratings give San Francisco a 52 percent chance against Buffalo at SoFi Stadium on Feb. 14. Across all 20,000 seasons the Niners win it 17 percent of the time, the Bills 13 and the Jaguars 12.
First-round picks that have changed hands
- Jets hold three: their own, the Colts' (the 2025 Sauce Gardner trade) and the earlier of Dallas's two picks (the 2025 Quinnen Williams trade). In this projection that is Dallas's own at No. 12, which happens in 72 percent of simulations.
- Cowboys hold Green Bay's pick from the Micah Parsons trade and keep whichever of their two comes later. Here that's No. 20.
- Browns hold the Rams' pick, part of the package that sent Myles Garrett to Los Angeles with Jared Verse coming back to Cleveland.
- Titans hold the Bears' pick, plus Chicago's 2028 first, from last week's Jeffery Simmons trade.
- Raiders have their own pick and nothing more. The Maxx Crosby deal that would have sent Baltimore's 2026 and 2027 firsts to Las Vegas collapsed when the Ravens backed out, so both stayed in Baltimore.
- No first-round pick: Colts, Rams, Bears and Packers. The trade deadline is Nov. 10, so this list could still grow.
What would change this
Three dates will move this the most. Saturday's Miami-Notre Dame game puts three of the board's top 10 on one field: Darian Mensah, CJ Carr and Leonard Moore. The trade deadline is next Tuesday, Nov. 10, and a Maxx Crosby trade, or a dozen smaller deals, would change both the order and the needs. Then the January deadline for underclassmen decides who's actually in this draft. Five of the seven quarterbacks taken here, Mestemaker, Carr, Simmons, Moore and Manning, can go back to school.
The trades are the part most likely to be wrong. Whether Tennessee sells No. 1 depends on how Cam Ward finishes the year, and whether anyone pays for it depends on which quarterbacks actually declare.
For the Raiders, the next game that moves the pick is Sunday in Santa Clara, where the ratings give them about a one-in-four chance. A win there opens up the wild-card race. A loss starts sliding the pick toward the top 10.
When it changes
- MidseasonPublished November 3, 2026. NFL records through Week 8.
- Playoff field setNext: Monday, December 7, 2026. NFL records through Week 13, with five weeks left.
- After the title gameTuesday, January 26, 2027. NFL wild-card and divisional rounds done, so picks 1 through 28 are set.
- After the CombineTuesday, March 9, 2027. The order is final; only the picks change.
- Final mockThursday, April 22, 2027. The last mock before the draft.
Every edition
Sources for this edition: Raiders Daily: 2027 NFL Draft big board, the midseason top 100 · ESPN Football Power Index, NFL 2026 · ESPN NFL scoreboard and schedule, 2026 regular season, Weeks 1-18 · 2027 NFL draft: traded picks (Wikipedia) · SI: 2027 NFL draft team-by-team picks and trades already made · National Football Post: NFL playoff format and tiebreakers explained (2026) · NFL Operations: draft order procedures · FOX LA: Super Bowl LXI at SoFi Stadium, Feb. 14, 2027 · Raiders Daily: NFL power rankings, Week 8 · NBC Sports Philadelphia: Jalen Hurts likely out for season after blood clot diagnosis · AP via WSLS: Lamar Jackson hurts right thumb, will need surgery · FOX 9: Vikings sign Kyler Murray to a one-year contract · Titans.com: Titans trade Jeffery Simmons to the Bears for two first-round picks · WSAU/Field Level Media: Terry McLaurin out for the season · TSN: LaPorta not feeling contract love from Lions · PFT: Cameron Jordan says 2026 will be his last season · National Football Post: Steelers sign Aaron Rodgers to one-year deal · Victoria Advocate: Texans face defensive questions heading into bye · PFF: The 8 biggest team needs following the 2026 NFL Draft · NFL.com: 2027 NFL Draft order and biggest needs for every team · Raiders Daily: 2027 mock draft, edition 1 (no trades) · NBC Chicago: the Jimmy Johnson draft trade value chart · WTOP/AP: Falcons' new leadership starts with only 5 picks in the NFL draft · Philadelphia Inquirer: Eagles trade Cam Jurgens to the Ravens.