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Against the spread

College football · Week 9

College picks: Week 9, 2026

Every game with a Top 25 team, against the spread. Locked at kickoff, graded after the final whistle.

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This week 0-0 18 picks

Season 45-48-1

Week 9 has two ranked-against-ranked games, Arizona at Texas Tech and Florida against Georgia in Atlanta, with Kentucky, Alabama, LSU, Tennessee and Houston on bye and 18 games touching the top 25. The quarterback news is the board this week: Julian Sayin is out for Ohio State with no replacement named, Dante Moore is done for the season at Oregon, Nico Iamaleava is done at UCLA, Florida and Iowa have not settled on a starter, and Mississippi State's Kamario Taylor is on a bad foot. The big numbers are Notre Dame 30.5 over Navy, Nevada getting 22.5 at the Rose Bowl, and Texas 20.5 over Mississippi State. Laying two scores with a home favorite cost six picks last week, so the rule against it stands, but the points are only worth taking where the dog has a scoring path. Mississippi State, Texas State and Nevada have one. Virginia and Arizona State do not, and both are marked as thin. Thirteen of the 18 games sit within three points of the ratings and are called coin flips where they are.

Saturday, October 31

  1. 22 Arizona at 13 Texas Tech Sat 12:00 PM ET

    Texas Tech -3.5

    Texas Tech was run through for 255 yards at Cincinnati and now gets Cameron Dickey back to hold the ball itself. Noah Fifita is the better quarterback on the field at 18 touchdowns to four interceptions, but he throws into a front that is 31st in points per drive allowed, and Arizona has been without its leading receiver since early October. The ratings make Texas Tech about five against a line of 3.5, which is thin enough to call a coin flip.

  2. 19 SMU at Syracuse Sat 12:00 PM ET

    SMU -10

    Kevin Jennings is in his third year running this offense and gets a Syracuse secondary ranked 90th in points per drive allowed, indoors, where nothing slows him down. Steve Angeli is back from an Achilles injury and beat North Carolina in overtime, but Amari Odom is out for the season and Malachi Nelson is weeks away, so the Orange have no margin for another hit. The ratings say 11 against a line of 10, so this is close.

  3. 25 Wisconsin at Iowa Sat 12:00 PM ET

    Wisconsin +3.5

    Wisconsin allows 4.14 yards a play, second nationally, and just held USC to seven points and minus 17 rushing yards. Iowa answers with the 92nd offense in points per drive and a quarterback job Kirk Ferentz has not settled after benching Jeremy Hecklinski at halftime against Minnesota. A 51 percent chance of storms in Iowa City and a total of 36.5 say the points matter more than the side. The gap to the ratings is under a point, so this is a lean.

  4. 5 Notre Dame vs Navy Sat 12:00 PM ET

    Navy +30.5

    Navy runs on 377 of its 473 snaps, averages 307 rushing yards a game and scores 29.7, which is the clock-eating profile that keeps a number this size out of reach. Notre Dame is without starting offensive linemen Charles Jagusah and Chris Terek and cornerback DJ McKinney, and Foxborough is forecast at 61 degrees and dry, so there is no weather to shorten the Midshipmen further. The ratings land on 30.4 against a line of 30.5, meaning the whole pick is the possession count.

  5. Auburn at 12 Ole Miss Sat 12:45 PM ET

    Auburn +13.5

    Ole Miss lost lead back Kewan Lacy to a dislocated shoulder at Texas and is asking a defense ranked 70th in points per drive to cover a two-score number without him. Byrum Brown has 480 rushing yards for an Auburn team that won at Georgia three weeks ago, and a quarterback who runs keeps the chains moving against that defense. The ratings make Ole Miss about 10 before the Lacy adjustment, and the market is at 13.5.

  6. 17 Florida vs 3 Georgia Sat 3:30 PM ET

    Georgia -11.5

    Georgia's offense is fifth in points per drive and draws the one genuinely lopsided matchup on this card, a Florida defense ranked 118th. Florida has not named a starter between Aaron Philo, back from a shoulder injury, and Tramell Jones Jr., and Georgia is the side that holds whichever one plays. The ratings say 14.3 against a line of 11.5, so the edge is under three points and this is closer than the unit ranks suggest.

  7. Arizona St at 8 BYU Sat 3:30 PM ET

    Arizona St +16.5

    Provo is forecast at a 67 percent chance of rain with likely thunderstorms on a total of 48.5, and a wet game is the shortest route to a number this size going unreached. BYU just lost at home to UCF in double overtime with 73 rushing yards on 18 carries, and Kalani Sitake has been working publicly on tackling. Arizona State's own quarterback is unsettled, with Mikey Keene questionable on a knee and freshman Jake Fette the fallback, so this is a weather pick and a thin one. The ratings have BYU by 17 before the rain.

  8. Minnesota at 4 Indiana Sat 3:30 PM ET

    Minnesota +20.5

    Josh Hoover threw for 81 yards on 18 attempts at Michigan while playing through a right arm injury that limited him all week, and Indiana needed overtime to win 13-6. A team that scored six points in regulation is not the profile that covers 20.5, and Minnesota's defense is 41st in points per drive after holding Iowa to 10. Curt Cignetti expects Hoover to be better this week, which is the risk, and the adjusted ratings sit right on the number.

  9. 20 Northwestern at Oregon Sat 3:30 PM ET

    Northwestern +3.5

    Oregon has not scored 20 in any game since losing Dante Moore and is also without Evan Stewart and Jeremiah McClellan, leaving the 96th offense in points per drive. Northwestern is 10th in that number with Aidan Chiles, who accounted for five touchdowns against Rutgers, and Chip Kelly calling the plays. The season-long ratings still carry Oregon's healthy September and make the Ducks about five; the current roster does not support that, which is why the points are the side.

  10. 6 Utah at Cincinnati Sat 3:45 PM ET

    Utah -6.5

    Utah is eighth in net points per drive behind Devon Dampier and a defense 14th in points per drive allowed, against a Cincinnati offense ranked 38th. This is not a soft road spot: the Bearcats are 5-0 at home and just beat Texas Tech, and Utah is down starting left guard Kelvin Obot. The ratings make Utah 8.7 against a line of 6.5, an edge of about two points, so treat it as a coin flip.

  11. Virginia at 14 Wake Forest Sat 3:45 PM ET

    Virginia +12.5

    Wake Forest is third in points per drive and Gio Lopez threw four touchdowns at California, so the only question is whether Virginia stays inside two scores. The ratings make Wake 10, which is 2.5 short of the number, and Virginia's defense is 49th in points per drive allowed. The warning on the other side is real: Virginia has averaged 16 points in October and converts 27 percent of third downs, so this is the points and nothing else.

  12. Nevada at 7 UCLA Sat 4:15 PM ET

    Nevada +22.5

    Nevada's defense is 21st in points per drive allowed and UCLA's offense is 43rd, running Ty Dieffenbach after Nico Iamaleava's season-ending knee injury. The Bruins' margin has shrunk to about 10 a game across their last three, which does not pay a 22.5-point ticket. Nevada's own quarterback room is thin with Carter Jones and AJ Bianco hurt and Luke Duncan the likely starter, but the defense travels. Ratings say 20.6.

  13. 24 Oklahoma St at Iowa State Sat 7:00 PM ET

    Oklahoma St -8.5

    Drew Mestemaker is second nationally in passing yards and fourth in touchdowns, and Iowa State's defense is 89th in points per drive allowed. The Cyclones are 101st in net points per drive and were beaten 39-3 at Arizona, with Jaylen Raynor benched at halftime before Jimmy Rogers recommitted to him. The ratings make Oklahoma State 9.4 against 8.5, an edge under a point, so this is a lean on the quarterback gap and nothing more.

  14. Mississippi St at 11 Texas Sat 7:30 PM ET

    Mississippi St +20.5

    Texas is 67th in points per drive on offense and just lost left tackle Trevor Goosby for the season, which is a lot of missing production to ask for a three-score win. The Longhorn defense is 10th in points per drive allowed and should keep this low, and a low-scoring game is how a 20.5-point dog survives. Kamario Taylor's turf toe may leave Mississippi State with Billy Puckett, and that is the flip; even allowing for it the ratings make Texas about 17.

  15. 1 Miami at North Carolina Sat 7:30 PM ET

    Miami -14.5

    Miami is first nationally in offensive points per drive at 4.02 with Darian Mensah, against a North Carolina defense ranked 46th that had three defensive linemen and two defensive backs out on last week's report. The Tar Heels blew a 10-point lead twice and lost in overtime to Syracuse, and their own offense is 79th in points per drive. The ratings make Miami 18.3 against a line of 14.5, the largest edge on the board.

  16. 2 Ohio State at USC Sat 7:30 PM ET

    USC +6.5

    Ohio State will hand its first start to a quarterback who has never had one, with Ryan Day still choosing between Luke Fahey and Tavien St. Clair after Julian Sayin's throwing arm injury, and this side holds whichever he picks. USC's defense is 92nd in points per drive, so the Buckeyes will move it on the ground behind an experienced line, but a debut at the Coliseum caps the ceiling. Take six to seven points off the ratings for the quarterback change and this lands within half a point of the line, which makes it a coin flip.

  17. 23 Missouri at Arkansas Sat 7:45 PM ET

    Missouri -10

    Arkansas is 124th in offensive points per drive and 120th in net, and Missouri's defense is 25th in points per drive allowed, which is the entire case. The Tigers healed through a bye after listing 24 players on an availability report, and Arkansas has shown no scoring path beyond the 31 it put on Vanderbilt. The ratings make Missouri 10.2 against a line of 10, as flat as a number gets, with a 44 percent chance of rain in Fayetteville.

  18. Texas St at 20 Boise St Sat 10:00 PM ET

    Texas St +11.5

    Texas State is fifth nationally in total offense and 30th in points per drive against a Boise State defense ranked 53rd, which is the scoring path a dog needs on a total of 63.5. The Bobcats' veer-and-shoot adds possessions, and extra possessions are how a two-score number gets closed. Boise is the better team and the ratings make it 12.8, so the edge is about a point and this one is close.

How picks are graded

Each pick is made against the spread available when the card is published Wednesday evening, and it locks at kickoff. After the game, the picked team's final margin plus the line decides it: above zero cashes, below zero is a mea culpa, exactly zero is a push. Scores come from ESPN's college scoreboard. Rankings are the AP Top 25 at publication.

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