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Against the spread

College football · Week 6

College picks: Week 6, 2026

Every game with a Top 25 team, against the spread. Locked at kickoff, graded after the final whistle.

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This week 0-0 19 picks

Season 20-22

Week 6 sits four ranked teams on the shelf and prices 19 games involving the Top 25, two of them ranked against ranked: Georgia at Alabama, where the line opened Georgia minus three and has swung to Alabama minus one and a half, and UCLA at Oregon, where Dante Moore's concussion protocol has nobody named. The heavy end of the board is Notre Dame at 37.5 and Ohio State at 34.5, both of which have a top-ten road game the following Saturday and both of which have emptied the bench once a game was decided. Quarterback uncertainty is the organizing fact of the week: Iowa, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Oregon, Kansas and Pitt all head to kickoff without a settled answer, and Pitt's is permanent after Mason Heintschel's ACL. Last week went 9-6 and the season sits 20-22. This card leans hard to the dogs, 15 of 19, because the market has priced reputation into road favorites sitting in lookahead spots rather than pricing the games.

Friday, October 9

  1. 20 Iowa at Washington Fri 9:00 PM ET

    Iowa +2.5

    Washington is laying a short number with a quarterback sitting 112th nationally in EPA per dropback and a running back room already down to its fourth option. The Huskies went 1 for 12 on third down at USC and allow three sacks a game, 125th in the country. Iowa's 20 to 19 win at Michigan says the formula travels even if Hank Brown's sprain keeps him out, and Ferentz has not named a starter or the body part. The 41.5 total is the lowest on the board for a reason.

  2. Iowa State at 8 BYU Fri 10:15 PM ET

    Iowa State +10.5

    BYU won at TCU 17 to 10 in the rain and six starters have missed time. LJ Martin's ankle, the right tackle job and the nickel are all unresolved, and Notre Dame arrives in Provo next Saturday with a seed attached. Iowa State just hung 577 yards and 45 points on West Virginia. A team that scored 17 last week is a thin bet to win by eleven.

Saturday, October 10

  1. Texas A&M at 14 Missouri Sat 12:00 PM ET

    Missouri -3.5

    Missouri put 560 yards and 45 points on a top-16 Florida team at home and rates 12th in SP+ defense. Texas A&M is 0-1 away from College Station and that trip was a 6 to 35 loss at LSU, with Terry Bussey gone for the season and Marcel Reed's offense called too choppy by his own coach. Three and a half is a small toll for the better team at home, and 86 degrees at noon does not help a thin visiting skill rotation.

  2. UCF at 18 Oklahoma St Sat 12:00 PM ET

    UCF +9.5

    Oklahoma State's margins against FBS opponents read minus 14, plus 8 and plus 17, so a ten-point win sits at the top of its range rather than the middle. Drew Mestemaker has five interceptions and two lost fumbles, and UCF is second in the Big 12 with six picks after forcing four turnovers against TCU. The Knights lost their two road games by five and ten. Jacob Maiava's hip is the risk on this ticket.

  3. North Carolina at 25 Pitt Sat 12:00 PM ET

    North Carolina +4.5

    Mason Heintschel tore an ACL at Virginia Tech and is done for the year, which removes a 243-yard-per-game passer and a program record holder. Holden Geriner makes his first start on 26 attempts for the season. Pitt's 5-0 includes a 12 to 7 win over UCF and a two-point escape at Virginia Tech, so the cushion was thin with the starter. North Carolina moved the ball on Notre Dame and lost on two returned interceptions, not on yards.

  4. 7 Indiana at Nebraska Sat 12:00 PM ET

    Nebraska +7.5

    The number opened at nine and a half and has been bet to seven and a half, which is the market reading the same spot. Nebraska is 5-0 with every win by 18 or more, hosts Big Noon for the first time since 2022, and still carries a 56 to 7 loss from the last meeting. Indiana flew back from Rutgers for an 11 a.m. local kick with Ohio State waiting at home next week. Gusts to 36 shrink the margin further.

  5. South Carolina at 16 Florida Sat 12:45 PM ET

    South Carolina +13.5

    Florida lost 45 to 17 at Missouri, got outgained 560 to 325, fell eight spots and heard its own coach call it embarrassing in every phase. Texas waits in Austin next Saturday. Vernell Brown's knee leaves the leading receiver and punt returner in doubt, with a safety and a corner also hurt. South Carolina's three SEC losses came by seven, 31 and one, and LaNorris Sellers just ran for 147 yards. A 70 percent rain chance caps the ceiling.

  6. 1 Texas vs Oklahoma Sat 3:30 PM ET

    Oklahoma +7.5

    The total is 39.5 because both defenses rate top five in SP+ and Oklahoma's is the equal of Texas's. The Longhorns won by 52, one, 24 and three, and the two close calls were the only quality opponents on the schedule. Arch Manning is at 63 percent with three interceptions behind an offense drawing 6.3 flags a game, 89th nationally. John Mateer's six turnovers are the risk and Venables will not name a starter, but the Cotton Bowl splits the crowd and seven and a half is too much in a 39-point game.

  7. 9 Ole Miss at Vanderbilt Sat 3:30 PM ET

    Vanderbilt +9.5

    Ole Miss grades 44.7 as a tackling unit, third worst in the country, and 50.5 in coverage, fifth worst, with 62 missed tackles in four games. Florida ran through them for 52. The Rebels are 0-1 away from Oxford and now lay nine and a half in Nashville, where Vanderbilt is 3-0. Jared Curtis sat out at Georgia and his status is unsettled, which is the case against this, but the defense laying the points is the bigger hole.

  8. 22 Houston at Kansas St Sat 3:30 PM ET

    Kansas St -2.5

    Kansas State is tenth nationally in total defense at 246 yards a game and 22nd in scoring defense at 15.25, against a Houston group sitting 47th in points allowed. The Wildcats come off a bye into their first home game in three weeks. Houston is on a short turnaround from a 17 to 0 hole it climbed out of against UCF, with Conner Weigman playing sick. Two and a half for the better defense at home is cheap.

  9. Stanford at 3 Notre Dame Sat 3:30 PM ET

    Stanford +37.5

    Notre Dame is 3-2 against the number and failed to cover 21.5 at North Carolina last week. At Purdue it laid 27.5, won by 39 and sat C.J. Carr for the entire fourth quarter, which is the pattern rather than the exception. BYU hosts the Irish next Saturday and two corners sit on this week's injury report. Stanford is dreadful and will lose badly. Thirty-seven and a half asks for a margin Notre Dame has no reason to chase.

  10. 21 UCLA at 13 Oregon Sat 3:30 PM ET

    UCLA +11.5

    Dante Moore is in concussion protocol with no timetable and Oregon has named nobody, so Dylan Raiola is in line for a first start as a Duck. The number came off 12.5 on that news. UCLA is 4-0 at 44.8 points a game, held San Diego State to ten and Maryland to three, and Oregon's defense sits outside the national top 50 after losing at Oklahoma State. Eleven and a half is a full number against an unbeaten team.

  11. 15 Tennessee at Arkansas Sat 4:15 PM ET

    Arkansas +13.5

    Josh Heupel will not name a starter. Faizon Brandon was hurt against Texas, went 3 for 8 with no yards and an interception against Auburn and got pulled, and George MacIntyre's audition was ten throws. Alabama comes to Knoxville next Saturday for the third Saturday in October. Tennessee beat Auburn 24 to 14 with the offense in pieces. Arkansas has been buried by every good team it has played, but 13.5 asks a lot of a quarterback room nobody can identify.

  12. Maryland at 5 Ohio State Sat 4:15 PM ET

    Maryland +34.5

    This opened at 37.5 and has been bet three points toward Maryland. Ohio State goes to Indiana next Saturday with everything riding on it, and its two enormous covers this year, 49.5 and 52.5, each landed by exactly 3.5 before the bench emptied. It also failed to cover 25.5 against Illinois. Maryland cannot sustain a drive, going 2 for 29 on third down over two games, so the first half will be ugly. The fourth quarter is where this ticket lives.

  13. 10 LSU at Kentucky Sat 7:00 PM ET

    Kentucky +10

    LSU is 4-0 at home and 0-1 away, and the away game was a loss at Ole Miss. Sam Leavitt is throwing on a hamstring that Kiffin described as leaving him a pocket passer who cannot run, and the linebacker room has lost Whit Weeks and Charles Ross. Kentucky beat the same Texas A&M team LSU beat, won in overtime at South Carolina, and gets a homecoming blue out under the lights. Ten is too many from a team with one true road trip on its record.

  14. 2 Georgia at 6 Alabama Sat 7:30 PM ET

    Georgia +1.5

    This opened Georgia minus three and sits at Alabama minus one and a half, a four and a half point swing on home field alone. Georgia is first nationally in rush defense at 57.4 yards a game and allows 3.89 a play against Alabama's 5.01. Gunner Stockton has 13 touchdowns against one interception. The Bulldogs are 2-14 all time in Tuscaloosa and that history is in the number, but SP+ still has them five points better on neutral turf.

  15. 19 USC at Penn State Sat 7:30 PM ET

    USC +1.5

    A 3-2 Penn State team that lost by 21 at Northwestern is favored over a 5-1 USC club ranked 19th, which is the white out being priced rather than the roster. Penn State allowed 22 points across its first three games and 58 across the last two, and leading receiver Koby Howard is out for an extended stretch. USC rates eighth in SP+ offense, runs 70 plays a game and has a bye waiting, so nothing needs holding back. Michigan is on Penn State's mind next week.

  16. Kansas at 12 Utah Sat 10:15 PM ET

    Utah -15.5

    Utah allows 10.25 points a game, third nationally, leads the Big 12 at 43.3 scored, and comes off a bye essentially healthy with Devon Dampier atop the conference in passer efficiency. Kansas is on its third quarterback after Cole Ballard's shoulder, has lost its entire scholarship running back room for the season, and runs 75 plays a game, the fastest pace on this card, at 4,600 feet in an 8:15 local kick. Kansas State and the Sunflower Showdown are next week.

  17. 23 Boise St at Fresno St Sat 10:30 PM ET

    Boise St -6

    This opened Boise minus seven and a half and has been bet down toward five and a half with the total frozen at 48.5, which is money on the side rather than on how the game gets played. Maddux Madsen has 11 touchdowns and zero interceptions across five turnover-free games, and Boise holds the ball 36:14 a game against a Fresno offense rated 89th in SP+. Fresno has won three straight Milk Cans and knocked Madsen out of last year's meeting. Boise has a bye after this one.

How picks are graded

Each pick is made against the spread available when the card is published Wednesday evening, and it locks at kickoff. After the game, the picked team's final margin plus the line decides it: above zero cashes, below zero is a mea culpa, exactly zero is a push. Scores come from ESPN's college scoreboard. Rankings are the AP Top 25 at publication.

Other weeks: Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3

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