College football · Week 3
College picks: Week 3, 2026
Every game with a Top 25 team, against the spread. Locked at kickoff, graded after the final whistle.
This week 4-5
Season 11-16
Week 3 picks cover the nine ranked-team games still to kick off Saturday afternoon and night. The only ranked-vs-ranked matchup left is No. 7 LSU at No. 8 Ole Miss, where LSU is laying a field goal on the road. The rest of the board is long numbers: No. 15 Tennessee -35.5 against Kennesaw State, No. 1 Texas -29.5 against UTSA, No. 3 Notre Dame -28.5 against Michigan State, No. 20 Missouri -27.5 against Troy and No. 24 Oklahoma -21.5 against New Mexico, with No. 10 Alabama -18.5 against Florida State in the early window. Big spreads are priced on margin, not on who wins, so each one comes down to whether the favorite keeps its starters in long enough to cover and whether the underdog has an offense that can score late. No. 25 Virginia and West Virginia meet at a neutral site in Charlotte, and No. 11 BYU travels to Colorado State.
Saturday, September 19
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Florida St at 10 Alabama
Alabama -18.5 Mea culpa Florida St 36, Alabama 50
Alabama -18.5 is two points shorter than the 20.5 posted earlier in the week, which buys a better number on the stronger side. SMU outgained Florida State by 261 yards and still only won 27-24 after four turnovers, while Alabama has allowed one third-down conversion in 23 tries. Kickoff heat near 98 degrees favors the deeper roster after halftime, and Alabama has last season's 31-17 loss to answer for.
Alabama wins by 14, and 18.5 was too many
Alabama trailed 21-6 before Keelon Russell threw three touchdown passes in the last 2:36 of the first half. Florida State went back ahead 28-26 in the third, Alabama answered with two touchdowns, and it was 43-28 midway through the fourth. Then Ashton Daniels ran one in and ran in the two-pointer to make it 43-36 with 7:27 left, and Trae'shawn Brown's 20-yard score at 2:15 only got the margin back to 14.
Mea culpa. The pick leaned on an Alabama defense that had allowed one third-down conversion in 23 tries. Florida State went 8 of 15 on third down, threw for 377 yards and scored 36. Three Daniels interceptions weren't enough to close the gap.
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Troy at 20 Missouri
Troy +26.5 Cashed Troy 17, Missouri 27
Troy +26.5 against a Missouri total of 49.5 means the market is asking Missouri to win something like 38-11. Austin Simmons has 544 yards and seven touchdowns without an interception, but Troy is 2-0 under Gerad Parker and has a reputation for physical, well-coached games that do not get out of hand. At 26.5 the backdoor stays open once Missouri empties the bench in the fourth quarter.
Troy never let Missouri get within sight of 26.5
Troy scored 45 seconds in on a 76-yard Goose Crowder strike to TK Keyes, led 10-0 after one, answered Missouri's 24-point second-quarter burst with a 55-yard touchdown to Howard Kinchen with six seconds left in the half, and nobody reached the end zone again. A Blake Craig field goal made it 27-17. Missouri finished with 230 yards and went 2 of 11 on third down while Troy held the ball 37:23.
Cashed. No backdoor needed; the front door was open all night. Troy covered by 16.5 and the fourth quarter never mattered.
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7 LSU at 8 Ole Miss
LSU -3 Mea culpa LSU 24, Ole Miss 32
LSU -3 is the price after Sam Leavitt was cleared and removed from the injury report Friday night, per CBS and On3. The Tigers are third nationally in havoc rate at 30.2 percent and have 48 pressures to Ole Miss 21, and Ole Miss may start a redshirt freshman at right tackle with Tommy Kinsler IV doubtful. Laying a field goal on the road is fair when one defense is that much better at the line of scrimmage.
LSU climbs out of a 24-7 hole, then Ole Miss walks away
Ole Miss led 24-7 at halftime after a Trinidad Chambliss touchdown pass with five seconds left in the half. LSU scored 17 straight, the last on a Scott Starzyk field goal that tied it at 24 with 11:21 left. Then Chambliss ran in from 14, the two-point run made it an eight-point game with 6:14 to go, and LSU didn't score again.
Mea culpa. The case was LSU's pass rush against a shaky Ole Miss right side. Ole Miss threw for 363 yards anyway, and the Tigers spent the first half getting outscored 24-7. Winning the line of scrimmage doesn't count for much when you spot the other side 17 points before you show up.
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New Mexico at 24 Oklahoma
New Mexico +21.5 Cashed New Mexico 6, Oklahoma 14
Oklahoma scored 10 points at Michigan, is without left tackle Michael Fasusi and receiver Trell Harris, and has Georgia and Texas coming next. New Mexico is 2-0 with no turnovers, eight takeaways and 14 points allowed, and Jason Eck runs a ground game that keeps the clock moving. Oklahoma has gone under in six straight non-conference games, and a low-possession game favors the team getting 21.5.
Oklahoma scored 14. New Mexico had 21.5 to work with.
Two John Mateer touchdown passes were all Oklahoma had: 29 yards to Hayden Hansen in the second quarter and 53 yards to Isaiah Sategna III in the third. New Mexico managed two Grant Glasgow field goals and 185 yards, and it didn't matter. The Lobos committed no turnovers, forced three and held the ball 34:08.
Cashed. The pick was a low-possession game with Oklahoma unable to pile on, and that's exactly what it was. The Sooners were never ahead by more than eight.
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11 BYU at Colorado St
BYU -17.5 Cashed BYU 41, Colorado St 23
This opened BYU -21 and has been bet down to 17.5 without a quarterback injury to explain it: Bear Bachmeier threw three touchdowns and no picks against Arizona and is healthy, and the notable absence is rover Siale Esera. BYU allows 12 points per game, and Colorado State's 46.5 scoring average came against a soft opening schedule. The 3.5 points of movement make the favorite the better value.
BYU covers by half a point after a late Colorado State rally
BYU led 38-7 in the third quarter behind three LJ Martin touchdown runs and 332 rushing yards, then let Colorado State back in. The Rams scored and converted a two-pointer early in the fourth, and after a Matthias Dunn field goal made it 41-15, Darius Curry threw a 1-yard touchdown and hit another two-pointer with 1:58 left. Eighteen-point margin, 17.5 spread.
Cashed, barely. Dunn's 26-yard field goal at 6:42 is the kick that paid. The read on the line movement was right; the finish was thinner than it had any business being.
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West Virginia vs 25 Virginia
Virginia -10.5 Mea culpa West Virginia 38, Virginia 27
Virginia opened -8.5 and is now -10.5 at a neutral site in Charlotte. West Virginia has allowed 22 pass plays of 10-plus yards, tied for 121st nationally, and Beau Pribula has hit five of six throws of 20-plus yards. Virginia is 14th in early-down EPA allowed while West Virginia's offense is 102nd, and Mike Hawkins Jr. carries a 4.2 percent turnover-worthy play rate.
West Virginia wins outright and Virginia's late score is cosmetic
Tied at 21 in the third quarter, West Virginia went ahead on a DJ Epps touchdown catch with 12 seconds left in the period and pulled away on a Michael Hawkins Jr. run and a Jack Cassidy field goal. Virginia's touchdown with 21 seconds left only trimmed the loss to 11. Hawkins ran for two scores and threw for two, and West Virginia ran for 247 yards.
Mea culpa. The pick was built on Hawkins turning it over and the West Virginia offense stalling. Hawkins had no turnovers, the Mountaineers put up 437 yards, and Virginia laid 10.5 and lost by 11.
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Michigan St at 3 Notre Dame
Notre Dame -29.5 Mea culpa Michigan St 10, Notre Dame 27
Notre Dame -29.5 is a big number, but the Irish have allowed 6.5 points per game with CJ Carr at 71 percent and no interceptions, and Michigan State ranks 100th in rushing success rate allowed, so the Irish can grind the margin on the ground. The Spartans rank 63rd in passing success rate and now face the best secondary they will see all year.
Notre Dame dominates and still falls 12.5 short
Notre Dame held Michigan State to 167 yards and 44 rushing, picked off two passes and kept the ball 37:02, and still won by only 17. The Irish led 17-3 in the second quarter, gave up a Cam Fancher touchdown run, then added a field goal in the third and a CJ Carr touchdown run with 10:55 left before the scoring stopped.
Mea culpa. The defense did everything the pick asked. The offense didn't: 395 yards, 4 of 12 on third down and field goals on drives that needed to be touchdowns. You don't grind out a 30-point margin at that pace.
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Kennesaw St at 15 Tennessee
Tennessee -35.5 Mea culpa Kennesaw St 9, Tennessee 42
Kennesaw State lost its starting quarterback, a starting corner and an offensive lineman to the portal and gave up 483 yards to Georgia State. Tennessee has beaten non-power opponents by an average of 46.9 points over four seasons and is 12-4 against the number laying 20-plus since 2022. Freshman Faizon Brandon needs reps before Texas visits, which argues for the starters staying in longer than usual.
Tennessee by 33, and a late Kennesaw State field goal does the damage
Tennessee led 35-3 in the third quarter and got to 42-6 on a Hunter Barnes touchdown with 8:49 left, which was a cover. Then Kennesaw State kicked a 20-yard field goal with 2:45 to go and the margin landed on 33. Two Cooper Ranvier field goals in the second quarter, when the Vols had the chance to put it out of reach, weighed just as heavy.
Mea culpa. Faizon Brandon got his reps and the Vols ran for 268 yards. What the pick missed is that at 35.5 there is no room for stalled drives that end in field goals or a garbage-time kick, and this game had both.
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UTSA at 1 Texas
UTSA +29.5 Cashed UTSA 6, Texas 30
Texas is coming off a 24-23 comeback over Ohio State and goes to Tennessee next week, a letdown spot on both ends. Arch Manning threw for 195 yards in that game and the Texas offense has not shown it can pile on points against a real defense. UTSA beat Texas State 31-26, and Owen McCown is a third-year starter completing 72.5 percent, enough offense to score late against the second unit at 29.5.
Texas wins by 24 and never threatens the number
Texas led 20-3 at halftime and 23-6 after three quarters, and the only fourth-quarter points came on a Derrek Cooper 1-yard run with 8:57 left. Gianni Spetic kicked three field goals, each one a drive that stalled short of the end zone.
Cashed, though not the way the pick drew it up. UTSA was supposed to score late against the second unit; instead it finished with 142 yards, went 1 of 11 on third down and scored six points. The Texas offense just never had enough to get past 29.5.
How picks are graded
Each pick is made against the spread available when the card is published Wednesday evening, and it locks at kickoff. After the game, the picked team's final margin plus the line decides it: above zero cashes, below zero is a mea culpa, exactly zero is a push. Scores come from ESPN's college scoreboard. Rankings are the AP Top 25 at publication.
Other weeks: Week 4