College football · Week 5
College picks: Week 5, 2026
Every game with a Top 25 team, against the spread. Locked at kickoff, graded after the final whistle.
This week 0-0
Season 11-16
Week 5 sits six ranked teams on the shelf. Texas, Ole Miss, Utah, Oregon, Oklahoma State and UCLA are all idle, which leaves fifteen priced games and three that pair ranked against ranked: Alabama at Mississippi State, Ohio State at Iowa, Florida at Missouri. All three have the road team laying the points and all three sit inside two touchdowns. The heavy end of the board is Indiana and Georgia, both at 24.5, with Notre Dame 21.5 and SMU 21 behind them. Last week leaned on underdogs and went 7-11, so this card splits near even: seven favorites, eight dogs, each taken on its own arithmetic. Where a big number gets laid it is because the underdog cannot score. Where points get taken it is because the favorite has a bigger game the following week. LSU hosts McNeese with no book posting a side, so that one stays off the card.
Saturday, October 3
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7 Alabama at 16 Mississippi St
Mississippi St +6
The line opened Alabama -3 and sits at -6, a full field goal of movement toward a team playing an 11am road game with two starting offensive linemen in question. Jayvin James is very much questionable at right tackle and Will Sanders is working back from an upper body injury. Alabama hosts Georgia next Saturday. Mississippi State has a bye after this and nothing else on the calendar. Rain sits at 73 percent in Starkville.
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UCF at 20 Houston
UCF +10.5
SP+ separates these two by 3.4 points and the market by better than ten. Houston is 118th in adjusted EPA per play on defense, and UCF runs the slowest offense on the board at 57.5 snaps a game, which is how a dog shortens a game it should lose. Keyone Jenkins has started twice since Alonza Barnett went down with a hamstring and went 19 of 20 in an outright win over TCU. Storms are 74 percent for a noon kick.
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Boston College at 21 SMU
Boston College +20.5
SP+ has SMU by 17.6 on a neutral field, roughly 20 with the home field, against a posted number that has not moved a tick since it opened. SMU is on a six day week after beating Missouri State by ten at home. Boston College scores 19.8 a game and is not winning this, but its defense has six interceptions, fifth in the country, and that is the currency a three touchdown dog trades in.
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3 Notre Dame at North Carolina
Notre Dame -21.5
Notre Dame allows 8.3 points and 199 yards a game, first in the country, and North Carolina is 102nd in scoring at 23.3. Belichick named Billy Edwards the starter but laid out a rotation with Miles O'Neill, which is not what a settled offense looks like. SP+ makes this about 22.6 once the home field is counted, so 21.5 is a shade under the honest number. Noon heat in Chapel Hill is the only real argument for a backdoor.
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Vanderbilt at 2 Georgia
Vanderbilt +24.5
The total fell from 57.5 to 50.5 with no injury to explain it, which is the market pricing a controlled Georgia win rather than a rout. Georgia goes to Alabama next Saturday, and Jared Curtis walks into Sanford Stadium having flipped his commitment out of it. Vanderbilt holds the ball 31:33 a game and covered both of its competitive games. Fewer possessions is how 24.5 stays out of reach.
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8 Florida at 25 Missouri
Missouri +4.5
Missouri lost this same number last week, but that was on the road in Starkville against a 4-0 team. This is Faurot Field off a first loss, and Missouri carries the best havoc rate in this group near 22 percent against a Florida line that has to protect 900 miles from home. Florida scores 54 a game and allows 29.3, 81st, so Missouri needs possessions more than stops. SP+ makes the honest number about 2.3.
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Auburn at 17 Tennessee
Auburn +7
Tennessee gave up ten sacks to Texas and Faizon Brandon took two hits worth noting, after which Heupel declined every injury question on Monday and pointed at Wednesday. Auburn snaps it every 20.8 seconds, fastest in the country, and its defense has 29 tackles for loss. This is Auburn's first true road game of the year, which is the risk, but Alex Golesh spent two seasons in this building as coordinator and has a bye next week.
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5 Ohio State at 14 Iowa
Iowa +13.5
SP+ separates these two by 14.0 before Kinnick is counted, which makes the posted number one that ignores home field entirely. Iowa allows 8.0 points a game, first in the country, and has thrown one interception all season. The total of 45.5 is the second lowest on the board, and a two touchdown cover inside a 45 point game asks Ohio State for something like 31-14. Clear and 65 degrees, no weather help either way.
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24 Kentucky at South Carolina
Kentucky +2.5
South Carolina opened -7 and sits at -2.5, and the reason is on the availability sheet. Dylan Stewart, their best defender, is suspended indefinitely and will not play. That defense already gave up nine passing touchdowns in two weeks on a 73.6 percent completion rate, and now it has no edge rush. Kenny Minchey is completing 68.3 percent for a Kentucky team that won at Texas A&M. SP+ splits these two by half a point.
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10 BYU at TCU
BYU -6.5
BYU is off a bye. TCU is 97th in adjusted EPA per play on offense with a run game at 39.4 percent success and a drive success rate of .323, 106th, which is the profile of a team that stalls rather than one that loses shootouts. BYU lost right tackle Andrew Gentry to surgery and replaces him with freshmen, but BYU has faced the lowest havoc rate in this group at 5.5 percent. TCU gets a revenge angle off last November.
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12 Texas Tech at Colorado
Texas Tech -14.5
Colorado owns the worst offense in this group at 121st in adjusted EPA, a 41.0 percent success rate, and a drive success rate of .206 that ranks 129th. Deion Sanders benched Julian Lewis at halftime in Waco and has not named a Week 5 starter, so Texas Tech is preparing for two quarterbacks. SP+ says 23.5 before altitude and home field are charged against it, well past the posted number. Tech has a bye next week.
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4 Miami at Clemson
Miami -16.5
Clemson scores 21.0 a game, 120th, behind a true freshman quarterback at 32.3 QBR, and just lost its lead back for the season. Miami leads the country in total offense and is fourth in scoring defense at 9.0, which is the combination that covers whatever the rain does to the passing game. SP+ makes it 20.8 before home field. Miami has a bye the following week, so there is no lookahead to fade.
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Washington at 18 USC
USC -9.5
Washington has not left Seattle this season and now takes a 4:30 local kick in 95 degree heat. Its offense is 98th in adjusted EPA, while Jayden Maiava leads the country in passing yards at 1,499 against two interceptions. USC's defense is the hole at 129th, which is why this is 9.5 and not more, but Washington has to score to exploit it and has not shown that gear. SP+ lands near 8.5.
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Utah State at 22 Boise St
Boise St -19.5
Utah State has turned it over 11 times, tied for the most in the country, and owns the worst success rate in this group at 37.3 percent with a drive success rate of .194, 131st. Boise has won ten straight in the series and Utah State is 2-13 all time in Boise. SP+ lands on 19.4 with the home field, right at the number, and giveaways are how a favorite clears a number that tight.
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6 Indiana at Rutgers
Indiana -24.5
SP+ separates these two by 28.5, the widest gap on the board, against a posted 24.5. Rutgers is 112th in SP+ defense and has thrown nine interceptions, 137th, while Indiana has thrown none all season, first in the country. Indiana is 0-3 against the spread and Cignetti called out a 22 minute slow start against Northwestern, which is the case for Rutgers. A defense allowing 9.8 points a game is the case against it.
How picks are graded
Each pick is made against the spread available when the card is published Wednesday evening, and it locks at kickoff. After the game, the picked team's final margin plus the line decides it: above zero cashes, below zero is a mea culpa, exactly zero is a push. Scores come from ESPN's college scoreboard. Rankings are the AP Top 25 at publication.
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