College football · Week 8

College picks: Week 8, 2026

Every game with a Top 25 team, against the spread. Locked at kickoff, graded after the final whistle.

By Taurean Matador · Tuesday, October 20 at 9:32 AM ET

Saturday, October 24

1. 18 LSU at Auburn Sat 12:00 PM ET

   Auburn +7.5

   LSU is without linebacker Whit Weeks, out since late September with a fractured fibula, and tight end Trey'Dez Green, who is targeting a November return, with edge Princewill Umanmielen unresolved after leaving the Mississippi State game. Byrum Brown is the kind of quarterback who punishes a thin defensive front; Kiffin called him a really hard player to tackle. SP+ and FPI split at 7.7, which is the line, so there is no rating edge in either direction and the points are the tiebreak.

2. 8 Texas Tech at Cincinnati Sat 12:00 PM ET

   Texas Tech -10.5

   Cincinnati is 89th in points allowed per drive and lost starting nose tackle Josh Hough to a foot injury, with no update since he was carted off at West Virginia. Texas Tech's defense is 16th in the same measure with 12 takeaways and four defensive touchdowns, tied for the most in the country. Homecoming at Nippert and a trip to Utah next week cut the other way, and the ratings put this at 13 or 14, so the margin over the number is modest.

3. California at 23 SMU Sat 12:00 PM ET

   California +19.5

   Cal's offense is 120th of 138 in points per drive and its top three running backs are hurt, which is the case for the number. The case against it is that SMU has not beaten an FBS team by more than 10 points all season and has no example of extending a lead, its only blowout a shortened FCS game in which Kevin Jennings sat the second half. Laying three scores with a home favorite that has never done it is the wrong side. Cal's quarterback is undecided between Jackson Brousseau and Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele.

4. Pitt at 1 Miami Sat 12:00 PM ET

   Pitt +20.5

   Pitt has the nation's best run defense, 57.3 yards a game at 2.0 a carry, and 81 percent of what it allows comes through the air. The forecast in Miami Gardens is a 20 mph northeast wind with gusts near 30 and rain at noon, which is the wrong day to ask Darian Mensah to throw for three touchdowns. Pitt's quarterback is unsettled, Mason Heintschel is out for the season with a torn ACL and Narduzzi has not chosen between Holden Geriner and Corey Dailey, so the number is earned. The ratings and the line agree almost exactly, so call this close; Miami has North Carolina and Notre Dame waiting.

5. 6 Indiana at Michigan Sat 12:00 PM ET

   Indiana -7

   Michigan's offense is 95th in the country in points per drive and its line has been down as many as three starters, which is the wrong profile against an Indiana front that is 21st in points allowed per drive. Whittingham has picked a quarterback and will not say whether it is Bryce Underwood or freshman Tommy Carr, and that does not change the read, since neither one fixes the protection. SP+ and FPI both put Indiana closer to 11.5 than 7.

6. Rutgers at 24 Northwestern Sat 12:00 PM ET

   Rutgers +16.5

   Northwestern scored nothing in the fourth quarter of its 45-14 win over Ball State and threw zero fourth-quarter passes against Penn State, then needed a last-second field goal to get past 2-5 Michigan State. That is a team that stops scoring with a lead, and Oregon at Autzen is next week. Rutgers' defense is 128th in points allowed per drive, which is why SP+ has Northwestern by 23 while FPI has 19; discount the ratings for a clock-killing offense and this sits at the number. KJ Duff, third in the country with nine receiving touchdowns, is enough offense to backdoor it.

7. Texas A&M at 13 Alabama Sat 3:30 PM ET

   Texas A&M +14

   Texas A&M's receiver room is gutted, Terry Bussey and Madden Williams are out for the season and Mario Craver and Kelshaun Johnson both missed the Citadel game, and the Aggies have not scored a road touchdown all year. That is the argument for laying 14. Against it: A&M's offense is 74th in points per drive, not bottom 20, Marcel Reed is healthy, and Alabama scored nothing in the third quarter of its 49-18 win over South Carolina. Both teams are on bye next week, and the ratings put Alabama at 15, a point off the number.

8. 11 Tennessee at South Carolina Sat 3:30 PM ET

   Tennessee +2.5

   Tennessee's defense is sixth in the country in points allowed per drive, the best unit on the field, against a South Carolina offense that is 26th. The line opened Tennessee -2.5 and flipped five points on the letdown story after the 26-10 win over Alabama and South Carolina's bye, which is narrative, not a roster change. Heupel will not name a starter between George MacIntyre and a healthy Faizon Brandon, and the pick holds either way because the case is the defense, not the quarterback. FPI and SP+ both have Tennessee by four or more.

9. 2 BYU at UCF Sat 3:30 PM ET

   BYU -6.5

   BYU's defense is 11th in points allowed per drive against a UCF offense that is 82nd, with Keyone Jenkins a Week 2 replacement at quarterback. The letdown case is real after the 28-24 win over Notre Dame, and LJ Martin and Sione Moa are both out at running back, but BYU won that game without Martin, so docking the number for him twice is wrong. FPI has BYU by 9 and SP+ by 15, and a short road number against a team that was idle is the cheapest part of this.

10. 15 Iowa at Minnesota Sat 3:30 PM ET

    Minnesota +6.5

    Iowa's offense is 73rd in points per drive and the depth chart still carries an OR at quarterback between Jeremy Hecklinski and Hank Brown, who hurt his shoulder against Ohio State. In a game with a 40.5 total between two teams running about 56 plays, a touchdown plus the hook is a large share of the expected margin. Iowa's defense is the best unit here, 18th in points allowed per drive and 15th in drive success rate, which is why this is close rather than clear; Minnesota's problem is that Darius Taylor has 98 yards on 50 carries since the opener.

11. Michigan St at 9 UCLA Sat 3:30 PM ET

    Michigan St +14

    UCLA has scored 17 points in each of its last two games since Nico Iamaleava's season ended with a knee injury, and Ty Dieffenbach threw for 264 yards with no touchdowns against Wisconsin. The ratings still carry Iamaleava's six games, so take two or three points off the 15 they project and this is the line. Michigan State is 0-4 in the league but lost 24-21 to Northwestern on a last-second kick, with Alessio Milivojevic healthy and starting his 12th straight game.

12. 21 Boise St at Washington St Sat 6:00 PM ET

    Boise St -12.5

    Washington State's offense is 131st of 138 in points per drive and its defense allows a .544 drive success rate, 118th. Boise State is fourth in the country in drive success rate and runs 62 plays a game while facing 49, so the possession margin compounds; Dylan Riley is second nationally at 139 rushing yards a game. The cover risk is real, Boise's defense has been last in the country in 40 and 50 yard gains allowed and Owen Eshelman ran for 136 in his first start. Pullman is 55 degrees with a 40 percent chance of showers.

13. Vanderbilt at 12 Kentucky Sat 7:30 PM ET

    Vanderbilt +10.5

    Kentucky's four wins over FBS teams came by 13, 1, 1 and 8, two of them in overtime, and its only blowouts were against an FCS team and South Alabama. Vanderbilt's offense is 98th in points per drive, bad but not bottom 20, and Jared Curtis is healthy and starting. Vandy's line is the worry, Gunner Givens out for the season after hip surgery and Mitchell Smith out after a knee procedure. FPI has Kentucky by 15 and SP+ by 9, so the average sits a point and a half over the line and this is close.

14. 7 Ole Miss at 19 Texas Sat 7:30 PM ET

    Texas -3

    Texas has the best defense on this board, ninth in points allowed per drive and 28th in drive success rate, and Ole Miss has to win a road game against it with Kewan Lacy on a managed workload. Colin Simmons is out three to four weeks with a high ankle sprain, a real subtraction, and Sarkisian said he needs a better version of Arch Manning with KJ Lacey taking first-team reps. Even after discounting both, FPI and SP+ have Texas by eight to ten against a three-point line.

15. Iowa State at 25 Arizona Sat 7:30 PM ET

    Iowa State +9.5

    Iowa State's offense is 77th in points per drive, not bottom 20, and Jaylen Raynor is healthy, so there is no reason to lay double digits with a home favorite here. FPI has Arizona by only nine, under the number, while SP+ has 16, and the average is 2.7 over the line, which is a coin flip. Arizona's defense gives points back, 118th on opponent long drives and 126th on short fields. Iowa State lost four receivers for the season including Dominic Overby, which is the case for Arizona.

16. 16 USC at Wisconsin Sat 7:30 PM ET

    USC -3

    USC is first in the country in offensive drive success rate and third in points per drive, and Wisconsin's answer is an offense that got 66 passing yards out of Colton Joseph against UCLA and just lost starting center Austin Kawecki to a broken hand. Wisconsin's defense is legitimate, second nationally at limiting 10-yard plays, which is why the ratings and the line are within half a point and this is a coin flip. Ohio State visits USC next Saturday, the clearest lookahead spot on the slate.

17. 14 Houston at 10 Utah Sat 10:15 PM ET

    Utah -6.5

    Utah's defense is 13th in points allowed per drive and seventh in drive success rate, and Houston's offense sustains rather than explodes, eighth in the country at gaining four yards but 79th at gaining ten. That is the wrong profile against this defense. Houston's run defense is fourth nationally at 74 yards a game, the counterweight, and linebacker Jaden Yates has been unavailable with no update since October 8. FPI has Utah by 5.6 and SP+ by 10.3, so the edge over the number is about a point and a half. Close.

How picks are graded

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