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Against the spread

College football · Week 10

College picks: Week 10, 2026

Every game with a Top 25 team, against the spread. Locked at kickoff, graded after the final whistle.

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This week 0-0 17 picks

Season 54-57-1

Week 10 has six games between ranked teams, headed by Miami at Notre Dame for the top of the playoff board and Georgia at Ole Miss, with BYU at Utah, Alabama at LSU, Kentucky at Tennessee and Texas at Missouri filling it out. Indiana and USC are on bye. The big numbers are Wake Forest laying roughly 47.5 on FCS Merrimack with no sportsbook willing to post it, Boise State 17.5 at Colorado State and Texas Tech 16.5 over West Virginia. Quarterbacks run the board again. Julian Sayin is out for the season at Ohio State and a true freshman has the job, Tennessee has not named a starter, Florida and Texas Tech each list two, Nevada has three hurt, Wake Forest's Gio Lopez had scans on a knee, and Boise State's Maddux Madsen is day to day. The approach is unchanged. Where a favorite of 9.5 or more is at home and the dog's offense can actually score, take the points, which puts us on Cincinnati, West Virginia and Merrimack. Ten of the seventeen games have the ratings sitting within three points of the line, so the injury list decides those rather than the number.

Friday, November 6

  1. 22 New Mexico at Nevada Fri 9:00 PM ET

    New Mexico -9.5

    Nevada has scored 17, 28 and zero in the three games since Carter Jones last played on October 10, finishing with a shutout at UCLA. New Mexico allows 11.9 points and 4.38 yards a play, the stingiest scoring defense in the country, so the Wolf Pack need possessions they have no way to win. Jeff Choate is counting on AJ Bianco and has not ruled Jones out; if Jones starts, this number is wrong and Nevada is live.

  2. TCU at 24 Arizona Fri 10:15 PM ET

    TCU +8.5

    TCU's defense is the best unit on the field, having held Baylor to 6 and lost 15-10 to North Carolina, and it faces an Arizona offense without Tre Spivey for the season and short at receiver. Noah Fifita throws for 324 a game and will move the ball, but the total is 42.5, and 8.5 is most of the projected scoring. The ratings make Arizona by 8.6, right on the number, so this is a coin flip taken on the defense.

Saturday, November 7

  1. 10 Texas at 19 Missouri Sat 12:00 PM ET

    Texas -2.5

    Texas allows 17.1 points and 273 yards a game, and Missouri scores a touchdown on only 75.8 percent of red zone trips, which is where a close game turns. Steve Sarkisian called his team undermanned and the list backs him: left tackle Trevor Goosby is out for the year, both starting corners are hurt and Cam Coleman and Ryan Wingo are questionable at receiver. That attrition is why the number is 2.5 rather than 6. Missouri at plus-8 in turnover margin against Texas at minus-3 is the live risk, and this is close.

  2. 7 BYU at 3 Utah Sat 12:00 PM ET

    Utah -5.5

    BYU's offensive line is in pieces. Andrew Gentry is out for the year, top backup Ethan Thomason has not played all season, right guard Kyle Sfarcioc and his backup Trevin Ostler are both hurt, and LJ Martin's ankle is still unresolved after four missed games. Utah is 8-0 and led Cincinnati 42-6 at the half behind Devon Dampier. The ratings make Utah by 5.7 against a 5.5 line, so the number is fair and the line play is the reason to lay it.

  3. 5 UCLA at Minnesota Sat 12:00 PM ET

    UCLA -5.5

    Minnesota has Drake Lindsey at 10 touchdowns against 6 interceptions with no 300-yard game, working behind a patched line that lost center Ashton Beers for the season. UCLA's defense is fourth nationally in points allowed per drive, shut out Nevada and held Michigan State to 10. Ty Dieffenbach has won at Oregon and over Wisconsin and Michigan State since Nico Iamaleava tore an ACL. The ratings make UCLA by 9.8 against 5.5, the clearest gap on the board.

  4. Texas A&M at 23 South Carolina Sat 3:00 PM ET

    Texas A&M +7

    Texas A&M allows 18.9 points and 316 yards a game, and South Carolina has given the ball away six more times than it has taken it, 125th nationally. LaNorris Sellers is the problem the Aggies have to solve after he put up 301 passing and 96 rushing at Oklahoma. A&M's receiver room is the counter: Terry Bussey is out for the year and Mario Craver, Kelshaun Johnson and Ashton Bethel-Roman are all unsettled, which is why Marcel Reed sits at 8 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. Adjusted for that, the ratings put South Carolina near 5.5, under the 7.

  5. 9 Alabama at 15 LSU Sat 3:30 PM ET

    Alabama +5.5

    LSU's pass rush is the real threat, 34 sacks and second nationally, against an Alabama line that has played two games without center Racin Delgatty and may get him back. Alabama still scores 38.3 a game with Keelon Russell and carries a plus-7 turnover margin against LSU at minus-2, which is how a one-score game stays one score. The ratings split hard here, SP+ on LSU by 6.6 and FPI by 2.0, averaging 4.3 against a 5.5 line. That is a coin flip and the points are the side.

  6. Cincinnati at 17 Houston Sat 3:30 PM ET

    Cincinnati +10.5

    Cincinnati runs for 229 yards a game at 6.0 a carry, with Cole Tabb leading the country at 9.52 yards per attempt and 13 touchdowns, and it scores a touchdown on 81.3 percent of red zone trips. That is the offense that beat Texas Tech 37-24 behind 252 rushing yards. Houston converts 60 percent of its third downs, best in the country, and Conner Weigman is full go off the ankle, so the Cougars will score plenty. Laying 10.5 at home against a run game this productive is the wrong side of the number.

  7. Merrimack at 14 Wake Forest Sat 3:30 PM ET

    Merrimack +47.5

    Wake Forest has to score roughly 50 with its quarterback's knee unresolved. Gio Lopez left the Virginia game on a roughing call, had CT scans and an MRI, and Jake Dickert gave no timeline on Monday with no injury report posted. Merrimack's worst loss this season is 35 points, at Delaware, and it has played four games inside a touchdown. No sportsbook posted this game; 47.5 is the consensus number carried by Covers and CBS, and the projection sits within a point of it.

  8. Oregon at 11 Ohio State Sat 3:30 PM ET

    Ohio State -7

    Ohio State's defense is the best unit in the game and Oregon arrives without both of its top backs after Jordon Davison and Dierre Hill Jr. went down at Northwestern. That leaves Dylan Raiola, who was 0-2 with no touchdowns and two interceptions before his 336-yard night in Evanston, to throw his way past it. The risk sits on the other side: Julian Sayin is out for the season and true freshman Luke Fahey managed 18 points in his first start at USC. The market has already moved toward Oregon for that, and the ratings still make it 11.5.

  9. 20 Boise St at Colorado St Sat 6:00 PM ET

    Colorado St +17.5

    Colorado State scores 35.5 a game at 6.49 yards a play behind Hauss Hejny, who put 56 on San Diego State and 45 on UTSA. The total is 68.5, highest on the board, and a 17.5-point margin in a game that goes over 60 requires a blowout, not a win. Boise State's Maddux Madsen is day to day on a knee and Max Cutforth would be making his fourth career start. The ratings make Boise by 19.6, so the edge is thin and the quarterback decides it.

  10. 8 Kentucky at 16 Tennessee Sat 6:15 PM ET

    Kentucky +6.5

    Kenny Minchey has thrown one interception in 232 attempts at 69 percent, the wrong profile to hand a Tennessee defense built on takeaways with 8 interceptions and 9 fumble recoveries. Josh Heupel declined to name a quarterback on Monday: Faizon Brandon has a shoulder from the Texas game and George MacIntyre has 2 touchdowns against 3 interceptions in four starts. Kentucky's own defense, 88th in points allowed per drive, is why this is not a bigger number. Adjusted for the quarterback the ratings land near 6, so this is close.

  11. 2 Georgia at 12 Ole Miss Sat 7:30 PM ET

    Georgia -3.5

    Ole Miss plays without lead back Kewan Lacy, with Luke Ferrelli's ankle unsettled and Tony Mitchell off the roster at linebacker, against a Georgia defense allowing 14.9 points a game. The Rebels give up 383.9 yards and rank 113th on third down while Georgia scores 41.0. The risk is the ball: Georgia has fumbled 15 times this season, eight of them in the last three games. The ratings make Georgia by 6.8 against 3.5.

  12. 1 Miami at 4 Notre Dame Sat 7:30 PM ET

    Miami +5.5

    Darian Mensah is completing 81 percent with 25 touchdowns, and Notre Dame has to cover him without DJ McKinney at corner and Brauntae Johnson at safety, with Drayk Bowen also out. The Irish allow a 42.9 percent third down conversion rate and a 66.7 percent red zone touchdown rate, the soft spot in an otherwise strong defense. Miami has given up 31 a game over three weeks, so CJ Carr will score too. This is the other side of laying 14.5 with Miami at North Carolina; here the points are the value and both ratings make it a three-point game.

  13. 21 Iowa at Northwestern Sat 7:30 PM ET

    Northwestern -2.5

    Iowa allows 12.5 points and 79 rushing yards a game with three shutouts, so Northwestern's path runs through Aidan Chiles' legs; he ran for 93 at Oregon on top of 281 passing. Iowa has to score without Kamari Moulton, out for the season, behind an offense that has not had to do much. Both ratings sit on Northwestern by three to five against a 2.5 line with a 45.5 total. This is the thinnest number on the card and a coin flip.

  14. Oklahoma at 25 Florida Sat 7:45 PM ET

    Oklahoma +6

    Florida still lists Philo or Jones at quarterback, scored 8 points against Georgia, and Jon Sumrall says the line is too porous to judge either one; Vernell Brown III has missed four straight and did not practice Monday. Oklahoma's defense has 23 sacks and is the better unit, which is the case. The counter is Oklahoma's own offense, next to last in the conference in yards, with Ben Arbuckle fired Monday and Jason Witten expected to call plays for the first time. Ratings have Florida by 3.3 against 6, so close.

  15. West Virginia at 13 Texas Tech Sat 9:30 PM ET

    West Virginia +16.5

    West Virginia runs for 261.6 yards a game, fifth nationally, with Michael Hawkins Jr. and Cam Cook splitting 1,759 yards and 23 rushing touchdowns, and it scores 35.9. Texas Tech allows 21.1 and has not named a quarterback between Thomas Castellanos and Will Hammond, with Donte Lee Jr. out and Jalen Jones and Malcolm Simmons unsettled at receiver. The total is 65.5. The ratings make Tech by 19.6, but adjusted for the quarterback and the receivers it sits near 17, and laying this number at home against an offense this productive is the wrong side.

How picks are graded

Each pick is made against the spread available when the card is published Wednesday evening, and it locks at kickoff. After the game, the picked team's final margin plus the line decides it: above zero cashes, below zero is a mea culpa, exactly zero is a push. Scores come from ESPN's college scoreboard. Rankings are the AP Top 25 at publication.

Other weeks: Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3