College football · Week 11

College picks: Week 11, 2026

Every game with a Top 25 team, against the spread. Locked at kickoff, graded after the final whistle.

By Taurean Matador · Tuesday, November 10 at 7:59 AM ET

Friday, November 13

1. Illinois at 8 UCLA Fri 9:00 PM ET

   UCLA -10

   Ty Dieffenbach put 303 yards and three scores on Minnesota using eight completions, two of them 75-yard throws to Aidan Mizell, and he is 4-0 since Nico Iamaleava's knee ended his season. Illinois has Katin Houser back and healthy but is down Javari Barnett and Ca'Lil Valentine at running back, so the Illini have to throw to move. The ratings make UCLA 10.5 and the line asks 10, which is no edge at all, so this is a close one.

2. 17 Houston at Colorado Fri 10:15 PM ET

   Houston -10.5

   Conner Weigman is past the ankle that had him in a boot at Utah and played the full win over Cincinnati, and he gets a Colorado defense that just lost at home to Arizona State. The Buffaloes have lost six of nine and Isaac Wilson took a 24-yard sack in that one. Boulder is forecast dry and calm, low 50s at kickoff falling into the 40s, so there is no weather to shorten the game. Projected margin is Houston by 15.4 against a line of 10.5.

Saturday, November 14

1. Duke at 1 Miami Sat 12:00 PM ET

   Duke +13.5

   Miami is without Malachi Toney, who had ankle surgery and is out for the regular season, and without right guard Max Buchanan, so Darian Mensah works behind a patched interior to Cooper Barkate and Daylyn Upshaw. Walker Eget has been throwing behind a makeshift Duke line for a month and still won 41-3 at NC State and 47-2 over Boston College. Taking Toney and Buchanan out of the numbers puts Miami near 11, which is inside the 13.5. Close, and the Miami defense is the reason it could be wrong.

2. 16 Wake Forest at SMU Sat 12:00 PM ET

   Wake Forest -1.5

   Wake Forest's defense is the best unit on the field and it is the one that has to handle Kevin Jennings, who threw for 350 and four scores against Virginia Tech. Gio Lopez sat out the Merrimack game and Jake Dickert said over the weekend he is optimistic Lopez suits up, which is not the same as cleared. If Steele Pizzella starts instead, this flips to a pick'em and the half-point is all that is left. Low lean: the ratings have Wake by 3.1 against a 1.5.

3. Northwestern at 12 Ohio State Sat 12:00 PM ET

   Ohio State -12.5

   Northwestern may be on its third quarterback. Aidan Chiles missed the Iowa game with an upper-body injury and Nicco Marchiol, who went 24 of 32 for 181 in relief, was still listed as unsettled Monday. Luke Fahey threw 50 times against Oregon as a true freshman and Ohio State did not lose that one early. The ratings say Ohio State by 13.9 against 12.5, so there is almost nothing in it, but the pick holds whichever Wildcat starts.

4. 5 Alabama at Vanderbilt Sat 12:45 PM ET

   Alabama -15.5

   Jared Curtis is a freshman who won at Mississippi State by two points with 168 passing yards, and he has to find that against the Alabama front that held LSU to 13 in Baton Rouge. Keelon Russell is day to day on the ankle he hurt in that game and still finished with three touchdowns, with Austin Mack behind him. The number has already fallen from 19.5 to 15.5 on that news. Projected margin is Alabama by nearly 23, so the pick survives either quarterback.

5. 13 Tennessee at Texas A&M Sat 3:00 PM ET

   Tennessee -2.5

   Texas A&M scored nine points at South Carolina without a touchdown, and Marcel Reed is throwing to a room missing Terry Bussey, Madden Williams and Kelshaun Johnson. George MacIntyre has the Tennessee job and the Vols put 34 on Kentucky while holding them out of the end zone. Tennessee lost Tyree Weathersby for the season up front, which is the real cost. The ratings make Tennessee 6.8 and Kyle Field is only asking two and a half.

6. Baylor at 9 BYU Sat 3:30 PM ET

   Baylor +7.5

   DJ Lagway went for 229 passing and a career-high 119 rushing against Iowa State, and a quarterback who runs is the problem BYU has to solve on every snap. Bear Bachmeier threw four interceptions at Utah and LJ Martin is back off crutches but, in Kalani Sitake's words, not 100 percent. The ratings only make BYU a five-point favorite against a line of 7.5, so this is a narrow read, not a strong one.

7. 18 Missouri at 2 Georgia Sat 3:30 PM ET

   Georgia -15.5

   Gunner Stockton accounted for five touchdowns in a 42-7 handling of Ole Miss and is healthy. Missouri is patching an offensive line with Josh Atkins out for the year and Cayden Green week to week, which is the wrong week to ask Austin Simmons to hold the ball against that Georgia front. Chauncey Bowens is not 100 percent on the Georgia side. Projected margin is 18 against a line of 15.5, so the edge is thin and the number is most of it.

8. Boston College at 11 Notre Dame Sat 3:30 PM ET

   Notre Dame -29.5

   Boston College cannot score. Mason McKenzie has not cleared 200 passing yards or 60 percent in three straight games, the Eagles managed two points at Duke, and CJ Carr is healthy on the other side. The risk is named: seven Notre Dame defenders are out, including Drayk Bowen and DJ McKinney, plus linemen Charles Jagusah and Chris Terek. The ratings say Notre Dame by 32 against 29.5, which is inside the range where the number is not an edge.

9. 20 USC at 4 Indiana Sat 3:30 PM ET

   USC +7.5

   Indiana has not reached 24 points in three weeks and won twice in overtime to do it. Curt Cignetti would not name a starter Monday: Josh Hoover has an arm injury from the Ohio State game, is under 55 percent in four straight and was pulled at halftime against Minnesota, with Grant Wilson the alternative. Jayden Maiava has 20 touchdowns and just beat Ohio State 30-18. Taking two and a half off Indiana for the quarterback puts the margin under the line by about a point, so this is close.

10. Michigan at 23 Oregon Sat 3:30 PM ET

    Oregon -11.5

    Oregon has scored 34 and 41 since Jay Johnson took over the play calling, the second of those at Ohio State with 38 unanswered points, and Dierre Hill carried 13 times for 75 and two scores with Jordon Davison out. Michigan scored six against Michigan State, fired its coordinator, and Kyle Whittingham called the quarterback job TBD again between Tommy Carr and Bryce Underwood. The ratings sit about a point over the line, so this is close, and it holds whoever Michigan starts.

11. 10 Ole Miss at Oklahoma Sat 4:15 PM ET

    Ole Miss -1.5

    Pete Golding said Monday that Kewan Lacy will not play and guard Patrick Kutas is out, so Ole Miss rebuilds an interior and leans entirely on Trinidad Chambliss, who has nine interceptions. That is the argument against this pick and the reason the margin is almost nothing. Oklahoma had eight players out a week ago, and John Mateer is healthy with Jason Witten calling plays. The ratings give Ole Miss about two against a 1.5 line, which is a coin flip.

12. Oregon St at 25 Boise St Sat 6:00 PM ET

    Oregon St +13.5

    Neither quarterback is settled. Spencer Danielson has not cleared Maddux Madsen and wants to see the knee in Tuesday and Wednesday practice, while Braden Atkinson's hand leaves Maalik Murphy as Oregon State's fallback. Oregon State's defense is the better of its two units and the one that has to hold up against a Boise offense that just scored 64. Two touchdowns is a lot to lay into that much uncertainty, and the ratings make it 11.9 against 13.5, so the lean is slight.

13. 24 Florida at 6 Kentucky Sat 6:15 PM ET

    Kentucky -3.5

    Florida has no quarterback. Jon Sumrall refused to name one Monday between Aaron Philo, who missed the Texas game with a shoulder, and Tramell Jones, who threw two interceptions at Oklahoma and is playing toward offseason surgery. Leading receiver Vernell Brown III is out with a knee that had a setback. Kenny Minchey is healthy and at home. The line has already moved from 1.5 to 3.5, so most of this is priced and the remaining edge is about a point and a half.

14. 3 Utah at 22 Arizona Sat 7:30 PM ET

    Utah -2.5

    Devon Dampier was the Big 12 offensive player of the week after Utah beat BYU 28-20, and he did it with Wayshawn Parker limited to 36 yards on a heel that Morgan Scalley said Monday will be fine. Arizona needed a one-point comeback to beat TCU at home and lost by eight at Texas Tech, and Noah Fifita has to outscore a Utah defense that held BYU to 20 and Houston to 13. The ratings have Utah by about four against 2.5, so it is tight.

15. 7 Texas at 14 LSU Sat 7:30 PM ET

    Texas +3.5

    Arch Manning went 28 of 38 for 297 and three scores at Missouri and was the SEC offensive player of the week, and LSU just gave up 31 at home to Alabama while Sam Leavitt was sacked four times. Texas is undermanned: Trevor Goosby is out for the season at left tackle and Cam Coleman's shoulder is unresolved, so protection is the live question. The ratings make this close to even and the market asks Texas to take 3.5, which is the only reason to take the points. Narrow.

16. Purdue at 19 Iowa Sat 7:30 PM ET

    Iowa -16.5

    Iowa's run game and Hank Brown have won 30-0 and 24-10 in the last two weeks, and Purdue has allowed 34 to Maryland and 31 at Penn State. The caution is specific. Ryan Browne threw for 296 last week, so there is a scoring path, Iowa is starting Michael Myslinkski at center with Cael Winter hurt, and the Hawkeyes do not run up scores. Projected margin is 18 against a 16.5 line, which is inside the noise, so call this close.

17. 21 South Carolina at Arkansas Sat 7:45 PM ET

    South Carolina -7.5

    LaNorris Sellers hurt his left ankle at Texas A&M, came back for the whole second half and finished with 251 passing and 34 rushing. Shane Beamer said Sunday his tests were clean and he fully expects him to play, with Tuesday practice the confirmation. Arkansas has lost six of seven in Ryan Silverfield's first year and scored 10 against Missouri. Projected margin is South Carolina by nearly 13 against 7.5, which holds even with Sellers limited.

18. 15 Texas Tech at Oklahoma St Sat 9:30 PM ET

    Oklahoma St -3.5

    Drew Mestemaker went 22 of 28 for 313 with six total touchdowns at Kansas State, and Texas Tech's defense just allowed 582 yards and 48 points to West Virginia in a 53-48 win. Tech plays this without Coy Eakin, who had hand surgery Sunday and whom Joey McGuire ruled out, without Jalen Jones, and likely without Cam Dickey. Pricing those absences moves the margin from a pick'em to Oklahoma State by about three, which is the line, so this is a coin flip at the number.

How picks are graded

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